The recent Middle East crisis underscores that European aviation’s greatest vulnerability is its fossil fuel dependency, not the climate regulations. While some industry players are using geopolitical instability to lobby against the ETS and ReFuelEU, T&E highlights that these laws are essential blueprints for achieving energy independence. Weakening this legislation now would only deepen the sector’s exposure to global oil shocks. This briefing explores why and how Europe should not backtrack on climate legislation, but rather reinforce it.
The escalating crisis in the Middle East has sent profound shockwaves through the energy sector, but is particularly acute for aviation. To the surprise of many is the extent to which the aviation industry is easily shaken by political confl icts around the world because of its over-reliance on oil and jet kerosene produced and/or transited via the Middle East.
The EU currently imports around 95% of its crude oil and therefore almost all of the crude oil used for jet fuel refi ning within the European Union. Additionally, roughly one third of European jet fuel demand is met by directly importing refi ned jet fuel, with the Middle East as the main supplier. Taken together, this means that around 30% of EU jet fuel supply, including both crude oil refi ned within the EU and imported refi ned jet fuel, relies on imports via the Strait of Hormuz.
The impacts of the crisis are multifaceted and are still evolving; notably, airlines have been forced to undergo rerouting to avoid volatile airspace, while many regional Middle Eastern carriers remain grounded. Beyond operations, the crisis has triggered jet fuel shortages that have led to signifi cant fl ight cancellations and an increase in fuel costs. SAF prices are also surging despite relatively stable costs for feedstocks like Used Cooking Oil (UCO).
In recent weeks, these disruptions have been leveraged as a catalyst for a renewed attack against green legislation, with aviation industry players calling on the EU to tackle fuel supply issues while simultaneously attempting to dismantle the very climate frameworks – such as the ETS and RefuelEU – designed to ensure long-term energy security. While the following analysis explores some of these key developments, they represent only a portion of the broader, ongoing disruptions facing the sector.
This briefing will demonstrate that the compliance costs of the ETS and ReFuelEU are negligible compared to volatile fossil fuel price spikes, arguing that dismantling these laws would compromise the very resilience needed to end Europe’s reliance on foreign imports. This document further explores how reducing fl ight volumes can signifi cantly curb the aviation sector’s massive contribution to global oil demand, in the short-term. Finally, we look at why SAF is the strategic choice for long-term energy security. Recommendations at the end of the briefi ng are targeted specifi cally at the AccelerateEU package expected by the European Commission to tackle the consequences of the current energy crisis.
