The new edition of the Trucking Conditions Index, which was issued this week by freight transportation consultancy FTR, saw a decline after posting a strong sequential rebound in its previous edition.
According to FTR, a TCI reading above zero represents an adequate trucking environment, with readings above 10 indicating that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for carriers.
And it explained that the TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions include: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. And a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.
For June, the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI reading came in at -1.83, down from May’s 3.56, with the former marking the lowest reading in 2025 and the former the strongest reading since October 2022.
FTR officials said that June’s decline was largely due to freight rates and fuel prices, adding that it expects trucking conditions to be much closer to neutral during the second half of 2025.
“We still forecast a steadily but only modestly more favorable market for carriers next year,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “However, swings in freight volume and fuel prices—and to a lesser extent, freight rates—continue to generate volatility in trucking conditions. Capacity utilization has been the most stable factor, but it has been only marginally beneficial to trucking companies. So far, the economy is weathering tariffs and other stresses better than anticipated, and our latest freight outlook is not as weak as it was previously. At least in the near term, though, we still believe forecast risks are weighted more to the downside than the upside.”
