December spot truckload volumes and rates saw shifts, to various degrees, according to the new edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index, which was recently released by DAT Freight and Analytics.
The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.
December’s TVI dry van freight reading—at 222—was up 4% over November and down 3% annually. The December refrigerated (reefer) TVI—at 190—rose 7% over November and was essentially flat annually. And the flatbed TVI—at 249—fell 1% sequentially and rose 3% annually.
DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of December, including:
- the national average spot van rate was up $0.20, to $2.29 per mile and up $0.18 annually;
- the national average spot reefer rate was up $0.15, to $2.69 per mile and up $0.22 annually;
- the national average flatbed rate declined $0.06, to $2.53 per mile and was up $0.14 annually;
- the contract van rate, at $2.46 per mile, was up $0.04 over November and up $0.04 annually;
- the contract reefer rate, at $2.79 per mile, was down $0.02 compared to November and up $0.05 annually; and
- the contract flatbed rate, at $3.05 per mile, was down $0.02 compared to November and down $0.01 annually
DAT said that for van and reefer freight, the spread between average spot and contract rates narrowed to its smallest gap since March 2022, underscoring shippers’ urgency to secure truckload capacity in November. It also observed that while freight volume gains were limited, spot market rates climbed sharply in December as seasonal demand collided with severe weather, negatively impacting e-commerce freight networks and tightening capacity, while monthly average spot market rates, for van and reefer freight, hit 2025 highs.
“Peak-season spot rates showed up in December,” said Ken Adamo, DAT Chief of Analytics. “A combination of seasonality, weather, the quirks of the holiday calendar, and constrained capacity drove prices substantially higher, as opposed to stronger freight volumes. Tariffs, regulatory chatter, and changes on the technology side made 2025 a very busy year operationally, yet pricing and volumes barely moved. Heading into Q1 2026, normal financial pressures will trim capacity and pinch freight broker margins, and if tariffs are overturned, we could see a chaotic couple of quarters as imports surge. But the longer this flat market continues, the more we’ll need something big and sustained to invert it.”
In an interview with LM, Adamo explained that December was, in a word, “nuts,” with the dry van segment as active as a peak since the pandemic or even back to 2017.
“Volumes were not necessarily up, which is problematic,” he said. “And for brokers, their margins got absolutely wiped. Broker margins went sub-10%, which is not very good. You’re starting to see the effect of considerable number of brokers going under. I think today broker financial responsibility goes into effect, and you’re going to start to see a bit of a long winner set in for brokers. That is certainly not something we want to have happen, obviously, but I think it’s just something to be prepared for, too. In December, brokers only had 9.9% gross margins—they need about 12% to be profitable— and that was down almost 2.25 percentage points month-over-month.
What happened was they locked in a bunch of contracts in Q4, and those contracts took effect, and then their buy rates just went through the roof. And it’s actually worse for reefer. Reefer margins were in the sevens. On a macro level, dry van was crazy, and reefer really took off. And so far in January, we’re seeing rates in like Louisiana up 27% year-over-year. New England is getting hammered. There are a lot of reasons for that, including weather a capacity crunch, and seasonality.”
In looking at the potential direction of spot rates early into 2026, Adamo said that the first quarter represents what he described as probably the most important in the freight market since the pandemic, with rates rapidly compressing back.
Adamo observed that entering 2026 rates are around $0.05 higher than they were for the same period in 2023, with the freight recession truly taking hold in the second quarter of 2023—with rates falling around $0.40 a mile over the first 120 days of 2023.
“If you think about comparative analytics, that is where to really draw attention,” he said.
First quarter activity could be viewed as more of a harbinger, with the second quarter mor likely to be the true benchmark for spot market activity.
“In January, you still have the exhaust from the holidays,” said Adamo. “February is always slow, no matter what, unless you have some type of apocalyptic polar vortex, and then March is when you start to come out of your burrow like Punxsutawney, Phil and all that stuff. That’s kind of the freight calendar. It’s really when you get into April, May and June, that you kind of tell the tale for the whole year, in my opinion. In 2025, year we had a pretty poor April and May. All that momentum that we carried through the holidays last year was optimistic and then tariffs came in, and Q2 was just an absolute disaster and and set the tone for the rest of the year.”
