Oil drilling rig in Midland, Texas. (Sergio Flores/Bloomberg)
March 30, 2026 4:45 PM, EDT
U.S. oil prices ended March 30 above $100 a barrel for the first time since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran, with President Donald Trump threatening further escalation of attacks, including on critical energy infrastructure.
West Texas Intermediate futures rose more than 3% to settle at $102.88 a barrel, the highest since July 2022. The $100 price is a key psychological level watched by traders and other market participants. Meanwhile, international benchmark Brent crude is on track for a record percentage gain in March, and average U.S. retail gasoline prices are hovering just below $4 a gallon.
Crude prices were also buoyed as more U.S. troops arrived in the region and the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen entered the war. Traders are warning that an even bigger increase in energy prices is on the way if the conflict doesn’t end soon.
Breaking the $100 settlement level for WTI “might be a tell that oil traders are now looking only to upside, with or without any peace talks,” said Carl Larry, an oil and gas analyst at Enverus Inc. “The realization is that there’s more risk to upside than downside, and the play is to expect the worst before we can expect a turn lower in the near term.”
In a Truth Social post, Trump said that if a deal with Iran isn’t reached shortly and “if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island.”
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Oil prices have already surged in March as the war wrought chaos across the Middle East, choking off the critical Strait of Hormuz for energy shipments. But the latest U.S. threats represent a further escalation as the conflict spreads, threatening not just shipment flows but the outlook for future production because of damaged infrastructure.
Iran’s oil exports are almost completely dependent on Kharg Island, a small outpost in the Persian Gulf. The island is the loading point for around 90% of the country’s crude shipments.
Brent futures were volatile March 30 amid thin liquidity, with traders increasingly staying on the sidelines to avoid extreme headline-driven price swings. Front-month May futures fluctuated as investors closed out those positions ahead of the contract expiring March 31, closing near $113 a barrel.
Brent has surged around 60% in March as the war upended global markets and triggered concern about a simultaneous spike in inflation and slowdown in growth. The conflict has entered its fifth week and is showing no sign of abating despite a diplomatic push by Washington last week and separate peace talks over the weekend in Pakistan.
Market disruption is centered on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows in normal times. The conflict has also sent shockwaves across the global market as fuel prices soar.
Average U.S. retail gasoline prices stood at $3.99 a gallon as of March 29, according to the American Automobile Association. If pump prices cross the $4 a gallon mark, it’ll be the first time that they’ve breached the key psychological level for consumers since 2022.
Iran has choked off all but a fraction of the traffic passing through the waterway that links the Persian Gulf to global markets. Tehran has moved to formalize its control of the artery, barring most vessels, while allowing a handful to pass, including from Pakistan, Thailand and Malaysia. In a symbolically significant move, two state-owned Chinese containerships were trying to exit Hormuz on March 30.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on March 30 that the U.S. is going to retake control of the Strait over time, and there will be freedom of navigation — whether it is through U.S. escorts or a multinational escort.
Still, traders remain concerned that naval escorts may not immediately make the Strait safe to sail through.
“Their talk-down-of-the-day tactic is growing old,” said Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets.
The involvement of the Houthis also presents a new risk for crude markets. The group effectively shut the Red Sea to most Western shippers after war in Gaza began in 2023, forcing vessels to reroute. Any threats to cargoes loaded via Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port would further constrain supplies.
Banks have been scrambling to calculate how the war — and prices — may evolve. Macquarie Group said last week futures may hit $200 a barrel if the conflict drags on till June and Hormuz stays shut in a scenario with 40% odds.
