The shift in fortunes began during President Donald Trump’s trade war with China in his first term. (Rory Doyle/Bloomberg)
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The U.S. agricultural trade deficit hit a record high in the first half of 2025, underscoring the continued decline of American farmers’ long-dominant role in global exports amid President Donald Trump’s trade wars.Â
The value of agricultural exports trailed that of imports by $4.1 billion in June — a gap 14% wider than a year earlier — pushing the sector’s deficit to $28.6 billion for the first six months of the year, according to data released Aug. 7 by the Department of Agriculture.Â
The widening deficit marks a historic reversal for the U.S. agricultural sector, which for the past five decades had consistently run major trade surpluses — even serving as a key foreign policy tool during the Cold War. The shift began during Trump’s trade war with China in his first term, with the initial annual deficits recorded in 2019 and 2020. Negative flows continued over the past three years.
Limited capacity to further expand crop and livestock production and Americans’ growing appetite for imported produce have helped erode the balance. In addition, Trump’s trade wars have played a role, pushing China — the world’s largest crop importer — to rely more heavily on Brazil for its supplies.Â
Some companies — including Brazilian beef producer Minerva SA — have increased shipments to the U.S. ahead of Trump’s new tariffs. The U.S. is also processing more of its crops domestically to produce biofuel, reducing exportable surpluses.Â
A sweeping new round of U.S. levies officially took hold Aug. 7, adding to baseline rates imposed in April. Taken together, the actions will push the average U.S. tariff rate to 15.2%, well above 2.3% last year and the highest level since the World War II era, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates.Â
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