Paced by the current reduction in tariffs on United States-bound goods from China, which is set to expire in mid-August, the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, said U.S.-bound imports are expected to “see a surge through this summer.”
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August. Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end. We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners in order to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain.”
The NRF executive added that orders were cancelled or suspended by many retailers when the White House rolled out a 145% tariff on China in April, followed by a resumption in import activity when they were temporarily lowered to 30%, in the form of a 90-day pause through August 12, whereas the previously-announced reciprocal tariffs by the White House on other nations is paused through July 9, while negotiations continue on new deals.
For April, the most recent month for which data is available and prior to the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, United States imports came in at 2.21 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), rose 2.9% over March and 9.6% annually
Port Tracker issued projections for May and the subsequent months, including:
- May, at 1.91 million TEU, for a 13.4% sequential decrease and an 8.1% annual decrease, which would be its first annual decline going back to September 2023, and the lowest-volume month since December 2023’s 1.87 million TEU;
- June, at 2.01 million TEU, for a 6.2% annual decrease;
- July, at 2.13 million TEU, for an 8.1% annual decrease;
- August, at 1.98 million TEU, for a 14.7% annual decrease;
- September, at 1.78 million TEU, for a 21.8% annual decrease (with 2025 monthly volumes from September through the end of the year expecting to see steeper annual declines, due to the timing a year ago at that time, due to concerns over potential East and Gulf Coast port strikes); and
- October, at 1.8 million TEU, for a 19.8% annual decrease
The report said that based on these projections the first half of 2025 would come in at 12.54 million TEU, for a 3.7% annual gain, ahead of the 12.13 million TEU full-year forecast made in the previous edition, as well as the 12.78 million TEU projection made prior to the rollout of the reciprocal tariffs in April, and called for a 5.7% annual increase.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that “trade policy is in a state of flux as it shifts from confusion to chaos and back again,” as evidenced by a temporary reduction on most imports from China, a doubling on steel and aluminum tariffs, and the U.S. and China accusing each other of not following the guidelines of a recent understanding they had discussed regarding trade actions.
“Our projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment,” wrote Hackett. “This resulted in a significant reduction in shipping capacity. However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses (most nations see their pause end at 12:01am EDT on July 9, while the pause for China extends into August). The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season. If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”
