The overall trajectory for truckload spot rates remains “inflationary,” but trade policy presents a significant wild card, according to a report issued by freight broker RXO on Thursday.
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based company’s Curve quarterly forecast said the TL market “has remained relatively calm” with spot rates continuing to step higher despite disruption from rapidly changing tariff policies. A trend – largely in place since 2023 – of soft freight demand, reductions in carrier capacity and stable rates continued in the first quarter.
RXO’s (NYSE: RXO) data showed TL spot rates (excluding fuel) were up 9.1% year over year in the first quarter, which compared to an 11.6% growth rate during the fourth quarter. The company’s all-in spot rate index, which includes fuel, also increased slightly again in the first quarter as it did in the fourth.
The data showed contractual rates increased 1.4% y/y in the first quarter – the first y/y increase since the end of 2022.
The 3PL classified the first quarter as “still primarily a shippers’ market” as “carriers remained under significant cost pressure, while shippers enjoyed relatively high tender acceptance rates, easy capacity and slight rate decreases in their RFPs.”
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