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Truck Drivers Seek Predictability as Freight Market Shifts

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Drivers are trying to protect stability as much as possible, the People. Data. Analytics. retention report found. (photovs/Getty Images)

March 6, 2026 3:56 PM, EST

Key Takeaways:

  • A PDA report found truck drivers in 2025 prioritized predictable miles, reliable equipment and consistent communication as they decided whether to stay with carriers.
  • Industry data from PDA, Platform Science and Tenstreet shows drivers valued trust and transparency over incentives, with inconsistency and broken promises driving frustration.
  • Rising early-stage job applications suggest drivers are cautiously exploring new opportunities, signaling potential retention challenges for carriers that have not improved operations.

Truck drivers are prioritizing reliability in the current uneven freight market as they assess whether to remain with a carrier.

The People. Data. Analytics. annual retention report released Feb. 24 identified predictability as the defining factor in driver retention during the freight market conditions of 2025. These drivers prioritized reliable execution and predictable outcomes over promises of improvement or short-term incentives, especially regarding their equipment, miles, pay and communication.

“It’s been a rough three or four years for carriers and for drivers,” said Scott Dismuke, vice president of operations at PDA. “I think that 2025 wasn’t really defined by a collapse or a boom. It was more defined by inconsistency, and what our data showed is that drivers weren’t necessarily chasing bigger promises during that uncertainty.”

Dismuke instead saw drivers trying to protect stability as much as possible. This came in the form of predictable miles, reliable equipment and consistent communication when possible. He also noted that drivers understood the freight market has experienced a prolonged down cycle.

“In volatile markets, drivers don’t expect carriers to control freight cycles,” Dismuke said. “But they do really expect them to control what they can control within those cycles. That’s really what we saw from the data, is that drivers, they understand and are more likely to accept bad news in uncertain markets, but what they don’t accept is confusion.”

Dismuke added that drivers want to understand what’s happening within their carrier. He warned that they aren’t tolerating silence, unnecessary surprises and extended equipment downtime. He said it can be difficult for carriers to be predictable in such an uneven market. He suggests carriers can mitigate this with effective communication and realistic expectations.

“It’s explaining the variability, it’s reducing avoidable equipment downtime and it’s really eliminating some of the preventable, for lack of better terms, execution failure,” Dismuke said. “For instance, if you tell a driver you’re going to have them home on Friday, have them home on Friday. They become less tolerable of those types of things.”

Platform Science found in its inaugural driver experience report Feb. 25 that communication and respect boosted driver retention. The commercial drivers surveyed emphasized the importance of honest and consistent communication between drivers, dispatch and leadership, as well as mutual respect. They also cited broken promises and a lack of transparency as major frustrations.

“As an industry, we talk a lot about drivers, but far less often do we hear directly from them at scale,” said Michael Bray, chief commercial officer at Platform Science. “The message is consistent: pay matters, but so does trust, communication and technology that actually works.”

Platform Science recommended that fleets looking to improve driver retention build trust through transparency and follow-through. The report said carriers should set clear expectations around pay, schedules and miles, involve drivers early when integrating technology and deploy tools that assist them.

Patrick Brennan of Cox Fleet talks about the common missteps that fleets make in planning for future maintenance and operational needs. Tune in above or by going to RoadSigns.ttnews.com.  

“The number of drivers who were doing a short form, or a lead application, in January and December, was up like 20 points year over year from being basically flat the month before,” said Tim Crawford, CEO of driver recruiting software company Tenstreet. “While the number of drivers doing full applications was actually down a couple of percent.”

Crawford added that drivers were very cautious throughout last year about switching to different carriers. They’ve instead been trying to assess the reliability of making a jump in the current market. But in recent months he has been tracking an uptick in drivers starting the application process, which indicates they’re at least starting to look.

“Drivers are seeing what’s happening in the market around non-domiciled drivers, around the pressure on chameleon carriers, all the immigration stuff,” Crawford said. “Our caution to carriers is look, if you think your retention is better, but you haven’t really changed anything about your operations, you might be in for a rude awakening.”

Crawford said that the retention patterns from his clients show that drivers prefer consistency from their carriers. This includes everything from internal policies, decisions and communications. But he also stressed that these interactions with drivers should occur across multiple touch points in a consistent way, something his software is designed to assist with.

“The more those communications, the more touch points, the more consistency, the more holistic those carriers are, the better their retention, and frankly, the better their safety outcomes,” Crawford said. “They’re looking for carriers to be consistent.”

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