Deal volume has declined in recent years, with nearly 1,800 deals completed in 2021. (skynesher/Getty Images)
January 15, 2026 7:00 AM, EST
Key Takeaways:
- Transportation and logistics M&A slowed in 2025 as global deal volume fell 21.7% to 1,150, extending a multiyear decline, according to Tenney Group’s 2026 Annual M&A Report.
- Market uncertainty, tariffs and higher operating costs delayed decisions and disrupted underwriting, pushing many potential deals off the table despite continued interest from strategic and financial buyers.
- Tenney Group expects cautious optimism in 2026, with activity likely led by well-capitalized buyers pursuing insulated or specialized companies better positioned to manage trade and cost risks.
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The transportation sector experienced a slowdown in merger and acquisition activity in 2025 amid ongoing headwinds and market uncertainty, according to a report by Tenney Group.
The 2026 Annual M&A Report released Jan. 13 showed that global deal volume for the transportation and logistics sector declined 21.7% to 1,150 from 1,468 in 2024. This follows a few years of declining volume, with 1,797 deals in 2021. Tenney Group discussed the results during a presentation hosted in partnership with the Truckload Carriers Association.
“We have all been on a roller-coaster ride the last few years, and we thought we were maybe over the last hill,” said Beau McGinnis, vice president at Tenney Group. “But the ride surprised us once again, which maybe that’s just the ride at this point. But 2025, it seemed was going to potentially be a year of recovery. I would say it was more of a year of adjustment.”
McGinnis added that the operating environment over the past year has introduced new challenges. He pointed to tariffs and stricter enforcement of commercial driver license standards. But he does expect the recovery to continue and senses optimism going into 2026.
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“I don’t think anybody was thinking that this would continue throughout the whole year,” Tenney Group CEO Spencer Tenney said. “As opposed to folks thinking about executing M&A, the majority of energy was used just to try to keep their head above water and … offset some of the continued rising expenses across the board for trucking and logistics operations.”
Tenney noted that deal activity persisted despite the headwinds. This activity mainly came from buyers that pursued strategic acquisitions that expanded their scale and service breadth. The sellers that drew their attention, he noted, had insulated themselves from trade policy risks.
“There were a number of folks that had greater exposure that put them at a higher risk of, unfortunately, not being able to get a deal done,” McGinnis said. “The deals that did get done were generally well insulated, or had solutions that the buyers ultimately desired in this more complex environment. And so, when we think about trade policy risk, that’s still going to be true a little bit in 2026, but certainly was a very loud variable that we had to deal with in 2025.”
McGinnis added that specialized companies also drew attention from buyers since the more difficult operating environment pushed them to seek opportunities and operations that are better equipped to navigate the market. But more generally, the report showed that quarterly deal volume steadily decelerated throughout 2024 and 2025. This was due to delayed decision-making and cautious execution amid ongoing market uncertainty.
“We see these announcements and think, oh, that kind of reflects the current deal environment, when in reality that reflects the deal environment eight to 12 months ago, because that’s the environment that was required to get the conversation off the ground,” Tenney said. “And so, if you look back to the front half of 2025, that was where we had maximum disruption, and for a lot of folks, that was when a lot of conversations that should have got off the ground never launched.”
Throughout 2025, President Donald Trump aggressively pursued tariffs as part of his trade agenda. His objective is to renegotiate more favorable trade deals, but the more immediate impact has been market uncertainty as companies try to get a sense of these policies. Tenney Group found that this also impacted M&A activity as it became difficult to evaluate companies.
“[The tariffs] also just disrupted the underwriting and the buyer process in general,” McGinnis said. “It was basically this roller coaster of a ride, which, not only does it make doing business tough, it makes trying to evaluate a business even tougher. And so, for the buyers that were saying we need to understand how this impacts your operation, there were a lot of moving parts.”
McGinnis added that this operating environment led to many quality companies struggling to get their deals over the finish line. The risks were just too pronounced with the already tough market conditions. He saw diligence, costs and the time it took to get deals done all expand in a way that slowed and stalled a lot of activity.
“For the folks out there that have established firms, that have established funds, that were clear on their strategy and had strong operating partners, there were a number of opportunities,” McGinnis said. “Where there’s disruption, there’s opportunity. And so I think that financial buyers, specifically, saw an interest in the space in 2025. I think that probably continues here in 2026.”
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