The trade deal between the United States and the European Union may spark a return to more typical seasonality in freight markets following months of uncertainty amid tariff implementations and pauses.
Announced over the weekend, the deal sets a 15% tariff on most EU exports—which is higher than the 10% global level already in effect, but lower than the 30% rate that was scheduled to take effect August 1.
Despite the higher costs and potential revenue hits that come with the tariffs, observers say most businesses welcome the clarity the Trump administration’s latest deal brings to the table. And it may help normalize some supply chain conditions as well.
“Though importers and exporters will not be happy about the tariff levels the deal entails for most goods or the possible dampening impact on revenue, they’ll likely welcome the certainty and clarity that the agreements provide,” Judah Levine, head of research at freight booking and payment platform Freightos, said Tuesday. “The deal should drive some welcome resumption of more typical freight seasonality—though those higher tariff costs will eventually be felt by consumers.”
Levine said the deal could spur a moderate rebound in automotive ocean and air cargo volumes as well.
“But the agreement’s 15% tariff level means most EU exports—though the status of wine and spirits remain unclear—are facing a 5% increase in duties compared to levels since April, and so it is unlikely to drive any sharp or prolonged spike for overall freight demand,” Levine said.
Jack Loughney, a senior data analyst with research firm Interact Analysis, echoed those sentiments Tuesday, pointing to the long-term impact of the deal on European manufacturers in particular.
“… the new deal should assuage some of the more pressing negative pressure on the global economy,” Loughney said in an email to DC Velocity. “On the other hand, the manufacturing sectors of most EU countries and especially Germany (whose problems are much more structural in nature), are already forecast to see their manufacturing sectors shrink in 2025. Any trade deal that puts additional tariffs onto entry into the vital U.S. market can only make things a little worse for them.”
