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Wednesday, February 4, 2026

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: See you in Munich, Europe better be ready

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We’re exactly a month out from the Munich Security Conference (MSC), an annual event which offers Germany’s political class a chance to grandstand and, more importantly, Europe’s old allies from across the Pond an opportunity to turn on their hosts.

Following our reporting this week, the MSC’s top team said it has disinvited Iran’s delegation. That decision has triggered wider chatter about the guest list, which is usually only officially confirmed hours before the pretzels are served at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof.

Munich has long been a late-winter staple of the diplomatic calendar. And with or without the Iranians in tow, this year’s line-up will be stacked with more foes than friends from the perspective of Europe’s beleaguered diplomats.

Last year’s most memorable moment came courtesy of US No. 2 JD Vance, who delivered a blistering demolition of Europe’s governance model – minutes after European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen left the stage.

The choreography crystallised the state of the transatlantic relationship: While von der Leyen’s address was big on promises – defence spending, reform, resolve aimed at pleasing Donald Trump – Vance’s speech barely acknowledged them.

As we exclusively reported this week, the Commission chief told MEPs that there’s a plan to turn Europe into a “military powerhouse.” That rhetoric is unlikely to sit well with the incoming American delegation in Munich, which looks like it will be led by intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard rather than Vance.

The lower-level guest list might be for the best. Meeting Vance earlier this week, Greenlandic and Danish officials were left smoking despondently after trying to ease tensions around the world’s biggest island during a White House meeting.

Heading into Munich, smokers are advised to stock up for stress relief. By the time proceedings get underway, Greenland could plausibly be de facto American territory.

After booting Russian officials from the MSC agenda following its all-out war on Ukraine, and pulling the red carpet away from Iran this year, it’s no longer unthinkable that America’s delegation could be unwelcome in Munich by 2027.

Sharing is caring?

This week Euractiv scooped details of a EU–US data-sharing agreement that looks set to see sensitive information on European citizens – such as their fingerprint data – flowing over the Atlantic as a condition of maintaining visa-free travel.

The internal EU document suggests US authorities would be able to retain, reshare and reuse the personal data of European travellers under terms of the planned visa deal – at a time when political tensions between Brussels and Washington are running very hot.

Farm ministers struggle to ‘take back control’ of agri

A turf war has been brewing for months in the Council, where envoys from the EU’s 27 countries meet weekly to make crucial decisions. The battleground is the future of EU agriculture – and who gets to set the rules.

Under the proposed structure of the EU’s long-term budget, Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) decisions are increasingly being handled by the Council’s “high politics” machinery. Now, farm ministers are pushing for a reshuffle of responsibilities.

How the Mercosur deal could yet fail

The European Parliament will vote next Wednesday in Strasbourg on whether to ask the EU’s top court for an opinion on the EU-Mercosur trade agreement – a move that could freeze the ratification procedure for months.

Várhelyi grilled over spying claims

What was meant to be an ordinary European Parliament budgetary discharge hearing on Monday quickly turned into an interrogation for Hungary’s health and animal welfare commissioner, Olivér Várhelyi.

MEPs used the session to press Várhelyi over a series of controversies, including his alleged involvement in a Hungarian spy ring during his time as the country’s ambassador for their diplomatic mission, which he insisted were unrelated to his portfolio.

French push to hit Chinese car industry spooks Brussels

Single market commissioner Stéphane Séjourné is pushing not only to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles – found to be sold at dumping prices backed by subsidies – but also on hybrid cars that combine an internal combustion engine with a battery.

The move, which has allegedly alarmed Beijing, could curb the surge of made-in-China hybrids that has followed a slowdown in EV imports – a trend European carmakers warn is threatening their domestic market.

Made in EU 

This week, Brussels and EU capitals saw the principle of European preference – whether EU funds should first benefit Europe’s arms makers – back in debate. For one, von der Leyen unveiled the EU executive’s eligibility criteria for arms purchased through the €90 billion loan package to Ukraine, two thirds of which is earmarked for military assistance.

The rules build on the €150 billion SAFE loans and €1.5 billion EDIP programme funding European equipment, but non-European products can be funded if no equivalent exists to meet Kyiv’s urgent needs. SAFE loans require at least 65 % of a product’s components to be made in the EU, Norway, or Ukraine.

Natasha Lomas, Angelo Di Mambro, Brenda Strohmaier, Charles Cohen and Nikolaus J. Kurmayer contributed reporting.

(vib)

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