Freight experts are confused about the on-again, off-again tariff signals emanating from Washington in one of the industry’s biggest soap operas in decades.
What will be the final outcome on industrial transportation from the White House’s ever-changing position on freight tariffs? And how does your company make decisions with so much uncertainty about tariffs?
No one really knows how many more twists and turns President Donald Trump’s tariff policies will take.
Currently Trump’s tariffs on the European Union are on hold until July 9. But on June 4, Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. Additions, subtractions, changes, exemptions all further complicate things for shippers who basically want to know, “What’s next, and how much will it cost?”
So how do shippers shift away the fog from the “tarrifying” clouds and help your company understand what needs to be done right now to protect your company’s balance sheet and profitability?
The addition of tariffs and elimination of the de minimis charge for small shippers has logisticians scratching their heads to find out what’s new, what’s the latest twist and, most importantly, what is President Trump up to next?
Experts from the law firm Thompson Hine joined Nancy O’Liddy of the National Industrial Transportation League (NIT League), Mark Baxa from Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and Lori Fellmer from Basstech International joined on a conference call organized by TranzAct, a third-party logistics and information company on the front lines of the Great Tariff War of 2025.
Whatever happens already pales from the effects worldwide. The World Bank, citing “a substantial rise in trade barriers,” predicted the U.S. economy would grow half as fast this year (1.4%) as it did in the final year of the Joe Biden presidency when it grew at a 2.8% rate. That’s a downgrade from the 2.3% U.S. growth forecast the World Bank made this past January.
Transport experts on the webinar tried to provide insights on the current fluid situation and what your company could be doing to try and manage tariffs. Highlights are below.
TranzAct founder and chief relationship officer Mike Regan said he’s had calls with “at least 500” transportation experts worried about the tariff ramifications. He suggested for starters that shippers write an internal manual for their companies’ position on tariffs.
“This is Covid 2.0,” Regan said. “What Covid showed the first time was fractures in the supply chain. If you don’t have a proactive policy on tariffs, you
“What’s the end game toward this?” Dan Ujczo, a senior counsel with Thompson Hine asked, citing court decisions, the meeting of the G-7 countries and how many bilateral deals can be concluded before the administration’s self-imposed July 9 deadline.
All countries–except Canada and Mexico—are currently paying a 10% tariff on imported goods to this country. Steel and aluminum drew a higher tariff currently pegged at 50%. China currently has a 34% tariff on exports to this country until August.
“This is like a cake with different layers,” Ujczo said. “The reciprocal part of the tariffs is the icing on the cake.”
Retaliatory impacts from countries (except China) have largely been muted. If the goal of tariffs is additional revenue, Ujczo said, they may be harder to get rid of than people expect. It also makes for difficult decisions on pricing goods going forward—depending on the rest of the world reacts.
“The world is keeping its powder dry until they see what retaliatory tariffs occur,” Ujczo said.
The likelihood is most countries will keep some form of tariffs on exports to the U.S.—unless, of course, Trump orchestrates a 180-degree turn in policy. Or if court challenges to the tariffs prevail and the tariffs disappea—an unlikely outcome, experts hinted.
“Don’t get your hopes up on the courts,” Ujczo predicted.
Ujczo said get ready to pay tariffs until bilateral trade deals are reached with various countries. Shippers need a game plan between now and the July 9 deadline. But mostly CEOs and senior executives need to get involved as well.
Lori Fellmer, vice president of logistics and carrier management for Basstech International, said Trump 2.0 tariffs are completely different than those tried in his first term.
On a separate earnings call with analysts, TJM CEO Ernie Herrman said his company, parent of T.J. Maxx and other off-price retailers, said he sources less 10% of its inventory directly from China.
“While we’re not immune to tariff pressure, we are laser-focused on our initiatives to offset them by remaining flexible and executing our opportunistic buying approach,” he said.
“As far as the pricing goes, we will always ensure that we are below—that we have a gap between us and the out-the-door price at the regular traditional retailers,” Herrman also said. “Having said that, we believe there’s opportunity for us to buy better.”
