The truckload market remained stable in the second quarter, but coming peak-season activity will test that stability, according to the latest Curve report from freight brokerage RXO, released earlier this month.
The company’s Q2 2025 report revealed a sustained year-over-year increase in truckload rates in the second quarter compared to the year-ago period, but growth decelerated from the first quarter of 2025, marking the third straight quarter of deceleration. Although soft, conditions are returning to more typical seasonality due to a range of factors, according to the report.
“Freight market conditions remained soft in the second quarter. However, with continued carrier exits, the market is responding to seasonality and is more balanced when compared to the last few years,” Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, said in a statement announcing the report’s findings. “While we continue to operate in a fluid environment, recent clarity on trade policies is enabling shippers to strategically plan in preparation for retail peak season.”
The report found that spot rates increased 6.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025, down from 9.1% in Q1 2025 and 11.6% in Q4 2024. Seasonal shipping events— including produce season, Memorial Day, CVSA International Roadcheck, and Independence Day—added short-term volatility, but spot rates receded to their baseline in the immediate aftermath.
Looking ahead, the report’s authors said they expect rates to continue their upward climb despite the decelerated growth.
“We were most interested to see whether typical seasonality during the busier summer months would drive sustained upward momentum in spot rates. Ultimately, that didn’t materialize, and the market remained stable,” Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO, said in the statement. “With the third consecutive quarter of deceleration in year-over-year spot rate growth, it raises a new question: Will rates continue on their upward trajectory? We think so, even if the third quarter growth rate ends lower than the second. Carriers remain under tremendous cost pressure from prolonged low rates, making the capacity environment far more susceptible to changes in demand.”
