Preliminary December Class 8 truck net orders saw annual gains, following a long stretch of declines, according to data respectively issued this week by FTR and ACT Research.
FTR reported that preliminary November Class 8 truck net orders, at 42,200 units, jumped 108% over October and 21% annually, hitting its highest level since October 2022, and also easily surpassing the 10-year December average of 29,351. The firm added that while both on-highway and vocational markets saw similar percentage gains relative to the prior month, on-highway made up the bulk of the annual increase in orders. And it added that despite the strong performance in December, cumulative 2026-season net orders from September through December fell 22% annually, reflecting broad market headwinds. FTR also noted that Class 8 orders have totaled 22,178 units for the past 12 months.
FTR improved policy visibility on both tariffs and emissions regulations following clarifications in October and November as a major impetus for December’s strong reading. It also observed that the Section 232 tariffs on Class 3-8 trucks implemented on November 1 turned out to be less onerous than many had feared, coupled with regulatory uncertainty easing. To that end, it said that the Environmental Protection Agency is expected to propose revisions to the 2027 NOx rule in March or April that would retain the 2027 implementation date and the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard while eliminating the costly extended warranty requirements and modifying other compliance provisions. Word of EPA’s plan did not circulate until about 10 days before Thanksgiving, which probably is a factor in why the order surge occurred during December and not November, said FTR.
“Despite greater policy clarity, freight demand remains soft, fleet profitability is constrained, and capital spending discipline persists amid rising costs,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, FTR. “As a result, December’s order strength likely reflects the release of deferred orders along with the early stages of a modest EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy rather than a broader demand inflection. A more durable recovery in equipment demand will require a sustained improvement in underlying economic and freight market conditions.”
ACT data: ACT reported that preliminary December Class 8 net orders, at 42,700 units, saw a 16% annual gain, and it was well above November’s preliminary 19,700-unit tally, which was off 4.7% annually, despite November being typically considered as the year’s third strongest order month.
“After spending most of 2025 in the doldrums, amid stagnant freight rates and beset by policy and regulatory uncertainty, new vehicle demand jolted awake in December,” said Carter Vieth, ACT Research Analyst. “A firmer economic foundation, increasingly aged fleets, and the certainty of higher costs and new technologies in 2027 were the impetus, in our opinion, for the sudden change of heart. As trucking fundamentals remain thin, if improving, we view December’s Class 8 result as overstating the improvement.”
The December “Manufacturing Report on Business, which was issued this week by the Institute for Supply Management included comments from a Transportation Equipment analyst, whom said that (aside from December’s strong FTR and ACT data) market conditions are not improving, noting that many customers are ordering for 2026, but those orders are 20 percent to 30 percent below their historical buying patterns.
“Some large fleets are still completely on hold for 2026, with zero capital expenditures money available to fleet budgets,” the panelist said. “Truck rental utilization, which is a good benchmark for the health of the economy, is still below historically stable levels. The general mood of the industry is that the first half of 2026 will be another bust, and we’re now hoping things pick up in the second half, even as the North American truck fleet continues to age.”
