The freight market remains under pressure after a three-year rate recession, but end-of-year survey data shows more than half predict stronger demand ahead, according to research from Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence.
More than 600 motor carriers and freight brokers surveyed in late 2025 reported year-over-year declines in rates, volumes, and revenues, but generally have a positive outlook for the first three to six months of 2026.
“Sentiment among small carriers appears to be turning more positive heading into 2026, even though challenges persist from tepid demand, inflationary pressures, and slack capacity,” Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a release. “Spot rates appear poised to move higher as the federal government’s crackdown on noncompliant truck drivers, carriers and commercial driving schools pushes more capacity out of the market.”
Despite that encouraging sentiment, business are waiting to expand until they get more concrete proof of a recovery, the research found.
The data shows that uncertainty is influencing staffing and investment plans. Nearly half of brokers (47%) are hiring additional staff, while 21% remain uncertain about their hiring choices. Carriers remain hesitant to increase capital spending: 68% do not plan to purchase additional equipment in the first half of 2026.
When asked when the market would reach its lowest point, the most common answer from both groups was “don’t know.” More than one-third of carriers (37%) are uncertain about where they’ll be professionally in six months, and 67% of brokers expect more broker exits.
“Unlike previous downcycles, which lasted 12 to 18 months, this trucking recession has now exceeded its third year,” said Todd Waldron, Vice President of Carrier Experience at Truckstop.com. “Transportation companies remain hesitant to allocate resources to a recovery until market signs clearly indicate one is happening. Yet, despite low volumes and rates in 2025, optimism remains for a turnaround in the first half of 2026.”
