The new edition of the Shippers Conditions Index, which was recently issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR, turned slightly negative, after returning to growth in its previous edition.
FTR describes the SCI as an indicator that sums up all market influences that affect the transport environment for shippers, with a reading above zero being favorable and a reading below being unfavorable and a “less-than-ideal environment for shippers.”
For February, the most recent month for which data is available, the SCI came in at -0.3, following January’s 0.6 reading. Which was preceded by October’s 1.3 reading, that fell from September’s 4.6 reading. The August SCI was 2.9, with July at 0.5; June at 0.3; May at 4.5, and June at 3.0—which was preceded by several months of declines.
FTR explained that tighter capacity and slightly stronger freight volume more than offset lower fuel costs and weaker freight rates during the month. And it said that going forward shippers likely will see tougher market conditions in the second quarter, with the caveat that this outlook generally is more favorable for shippers than it was in its prior forecast.
“The strong freight activity due mostly to the surge in imports to minimize tariff impacts has peaked, and we expect a much weaker freight environment by early summer,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “Shippers’ own volumes likely will suffer, but a silver lining–at least for traffic managers–is that freight market conditions in the second half should be better than what we had expected before we adjusted our economic and freight market forecasts to reflect the impact of tariffs. The outlook beyond 2025 is less clear as the longer-term effects of tariffs and potential for resolution of trade disputes are up in the air.”
