S&P Global Mobility is not the only observer more optimistic about truck production and demand prospects in 2026. (Cheney Orr/Bloomberg)
February 13, 2026 4:25 PM, EST
Key Takeaways:
- S&P Global Mobility expects North American Class 8 production to rise in 2026 as freight conditions stabilize and replacement demand strengthens.
- OEMs see improving orders and clearer EPA NOx rules contributing to a more predictable demand outlook for next year.
- Forecasts diverge across the industry, with some projecting gains and others declines, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the 2026 market.
Truck makers are largely maintaining Mexican production levels — despite the United States’ introduction of Section 232 tariffs on heavy-duty truck and parts imports — as expectations mount for a rebound in North American demand, according to S&P Global Mobility.
However, the situation will need continued close monitoring, warned Global Heavy Truck Research Director Christiane Stein, given the impulsive and sometimes inconclusive nature of U.S. trade policy since the start of 2025.
President Donald Trump introduced 25% tariffs on U.S. imports of medium- and heavy-duty trucks and parts on Nov. 1 as he seeks to reorient trade flows, although the full details are yet to emerge.
Freightliner and Western Star parent company Daimler Truck North America owns two plants: Saltillo and Santiago Tianguistenco. International Motors’ Escobedo assembly plant produces a full range of the company’s Class 8 lineup. Paccar Inc.’s Peterbilt unit manufactures trucks in Mexicali.
DTNA and Traton unit International are the largest suppliers of Class 8 trucks built in Mexico.
(S&P Global Mobility)
And those OEMs are gaining more confidence about the prospects for 2026 demand after an underwhelming 2025 that saw equally optimistic early expectations torpedoed by the ongoing freight recession and the Trump administration’s capricious trade policy.
North American Class 8 production is set to increase to 275,803 trucks and tractors in 2026 from 248,638 vehicles in 2025, according to S&P Global Mobility’s first-quarter 2026 forecast, released Feb. 6. The prediction includes U.S., Canadian and Mexican output.
Demand from carriers will increase due to stronger replacement cycles and firmer freight markets, plus the arrival of new or refreshed tractors, Stein said in a late January briefing in Frankfurt, Germany, the details of which were released Feb. 10.
Stein also said greater clarity around the Environmental Protection Agency’s nitrogen oxide emissions regulations will create a clearer and more linear near-term demand profile.
Overall, North America is re-entering a healthier demand rhythm driven by operational needs rather than pre-emptive regulatory timing, she said.
Demand Optimism
S&P Global Mobility is not the only observer more optimistic about truck production and demand prospects in 2026.
Volvo Group in late January lifted its full-year North American industrywide sales expectations by 15,000 trucks, or 6%, to 265,000 trucks.
“And the reason is that we anticipate — supported by recent order activity — a gradual recovery during the course of the year,” CEO Martin Lundstedt said during Volvo Group’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call.
Of all the major truck OEMs, Volvo saw the greatest revamp of its tractor portfolio in recent quarters. Volvo Trucks North America overhauled both the VNL and VNR over the past two years, while Mack Trucks launched the Pioneer, its new flagship longhaul tractor. The company also repositioned and revamped the Pioneer’s predecessor — the Anthem — in 2025.
Transport Topics reporters Eugene Mulero and Keiron Greenhalgh examine the critical trends that will define freight transportation in the year ahead. Tune in above or by going to RoadSigns.ttnews.com.
Engine maker Cummins, meanwhile, expects North American heavy-duty truck production to be between 220,000 and 240,000 vehicles, which it calculated would be flat with 2025 to as much as 10% higher. Cummins’ forecast also comprises U.S., Canadian and Mexican truck production.
The Columbus, Ind.-based company expects North American medium-duty truck production in a range of 110,000 to 120,000 vehicles, also flat to up 10%, it said when releasing Q4 earnings Feb. 5.
Cummins CEO Jennifer Rumsey and Chief Financial Officer Mark Smith said during the company’s Q4 earnings call that a recovery in on-highway heavy-duty truck production levels due to cyclical replacement demand from fleets plus pre-buy purchases would boost engine shipments in the second half of 2026.
Expectations for 2025 and 2026 had been buoyed by predictions of a “pre-buy” ramping up demand from carriers eager to beat the deadline for the NOx regulation, but hopes fell as Trump’s second presidency began.
EPA is now set to leave in place a Biden-era requirement that NOx emissions for heavy-duty trucks drop to 35 milligrams per horsepower-hour from 200 mg/hp-hr after many months of uncertainty for truck makers and carriers.
A Turnaround on a Pre-Buy?
That clarity is boosting optimism about a pre-buy re-emerging.
“We are assuming we’ll see some pre-buy in the second half of [the] year. You know, there’s a combination of the natural coming out of the down cycle for the truck market, the more stability and tariffs that will cause customers to start buying trucks again, and then pre-buy in the second half of the year, but we’re really watching to try to understand how much will that be,” Rumsey said.
“You saw strong orders in December, improvement in orders last month, but how … that flows over the course of the year. I think we’re all watching and ‘cautiously optimistic’ is what I would say. And then, you know, if demand does start to strengthen, how quickly can the supply base flex back up? Because it dropped quite dramatically last year. So those are the things to watch,” Rumsey noted.
Rumsey and Smith both noted Cummins product launches were on the way in 2026 ahead of the revised regulations’ implementation.
Kenworth and Peterbilt parent company Paccar said during its own Q4 earnings call that industrywide U.S. and Canada retail Class 8 truck sales totaled 233,000 units in 2025 and are expected to range from 230,000 to 270,000 trucks in 2026.
Paccar also expects to launch new engines in the run-up to the deadline, executives teased during the Bellevue, Wash.-based truck maker’s 2026 investor day Feb. 10.
Independent research group ACT Research, meanwhile, expects 2026 North American Class 8 sales to increase 1.7% from 2025 to about 263,000 units.
However, not every observer is exhibiting the same optimism. Ryder System incoming CEO John Diez told analysts Feb. 11 during the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call that its outlook assumes U.S. Class 8 truck and tractor production will decline 4% in 2026.
Ryder ranks No. 6 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America, with Ryder Dedicated Transportation Solutions ranking No. 5 among truckload/dedicated carriers. The company also ranks No. 7 on the TT Top 100 list of the largest logistics companies.
