United States rail carload and intermodal volumes were mixed in June, according to the new edition of the “Rail Industry Overview (RIO),” which was recently published by the Washington, D.C.-based Association of American Railroads (AAR).
This free publication is issued monthly by the AAR and provides insights from AAR’s economists, regarding what rail traffic is saying about the current state of the economy, as well as where things may be headed. It also features a Freight Rail Index (FRI), which AAR said “tracks movement across the most economically sensitive rail traffic commodities,” including U.S. carload commodities (excluding coal and grain) and intermodal containers and trailers.
AAR Chief Economist Rand Ghayad told LM that the RIO essentially provides a summary of the key findings from the roughly 45 reports AAR produces for various industry stakeholders, with some of those reports geared towards those in the freight rail industry, as well as policy makers, and academics, with data and information coming from what he called a wide range of sources.
“Rail volume or rail traffic data in general is usually seen as a very important and solid indicator of what’s happening in the economy,” he said. “So, if you want to know how is the economy is going to be moving over the next couple of months, one way is actually to look at what’s happening in the rail industry. The whole idea of RIO is to summarize the findings from everything we’re putting out there and connect the dots with what’s happening in the economy. If the industry is doing well, it means the economy is on the right track. If the industry is not doing well, it means there are some concerns about how the economy is proceeding. It’s meant to be very easy to digest. It’s not meant to be very technical. It’s not meant to be only for, rail folks. It’s meant to be for everybody who’s interested to know about the economy, and mostly about how rail drives the economy.”
The June FRI was down 0.5% compared to May, which marks its lowest reading since May 2024. AAR said that this decline is due to intermodal softness, adding that seasonally-adjusted carloads, excluding coal and grain and also excluding intermodal increased 0.7% sequentially, which AAR said reflects pockets of strength for certain key rail sectors amid economic uncertainties.
June U.S. carloads were up 2.1%, or around 19,000 carloads, annually, marking the first four-month stretch of gains going back to late 2021, with 10 of the 20 carload categories tracked by the AAR seeing annual gains.
The weekly carload average, at 226,259, marked its highest level since June 2021, with only 14 months—since January 2020—turning in a higher weekly average than June 2025. What’s more, AAR reported that total first quarter carloads rose 4.8% annually, marking the largest quarterly increase since the third quarter 2021—and, for the first half of 2025, U.S. rail carloads increased 2.4%, or 136,000 carloads, annually.
June U.S. intermodal volume was off 2.9%, or 31,000 containers and trailers, annually, marking the first annual U.S. intermodal decline in 22 months. AAR explained that this decline “comes amid broader uncertainties impacting global supply chains that have tempered intermodal shipments.”
The weekly June intermodal average, at 260,834 units, came in below the June 2016-to-2025 average of 263,991. And, for the second quarter, U.S. intermodal volume was up 2.0% annually, with total U.S. intermodal volume through July, at 6.98 million units, is up 5.1%, or 340,000 units, annually, the third-highest tally for this period, trailing only 2018 and 2021.
Intermodal performance will hinge on various factors, according to AAR, including developments impacting global supply chains and the strength of consumer-driven freight demand, noting that these trends are always difficult to predict.
“The first half of 2025 offered few clear signals, and the months ahead may be no different,” said AAR. “Freight volumes, like the broader economy, will likely continue to reflect a mix of competing forces—some supportive, others restraining—as businesses and consumers navigate an unsettled economic landscape.”
