The analysis is limited to the Netherlands, but contains elements that are also relevant to the transport market in Belgium: according to ING, the demand for road transport is increasing slightly again and this trend is expected to continue in 2026.
Despite the geopolitical tensions and general economic uncertainty, the transport market has calmed down somewhat since the summer. According to Rico Luman, transport specialist at ING, the economy is holding up better than expected: “Exports will contribute less, but domestic purchasing power is expected to continue to rise in 2026. The domestic transport market is showing signs of recovery thanks to the recovery of the construction sector and a slight increase in demand for consumer goods.”
For 2026, Rico Luman expects that the downward trend of European exports to the United States and the upward trend of imports from China will continue. In terms of domestic demand, he sees positive signs in the planned investments in Europe, and especially in Germany, in infrastructure and defense. However, the slow implementation of these plans will limit their impact in 2026. “With a renewed will to reduce dependence on foreign countries and rely on the strength of Europe, the internal market could eventually gain new impetus. Road transport in particular could benefit from an increase in trade and transport within Europe,” he concludes.
Increase in wages
The Netherlands does not have automatic wage indexation, but according to the Central Planning Bureau (CPB), a wage increase of 4% is expected in the transport sector in 2026, which should reduce the wage difference between Belgian and Dutch carriers.
