Following news that CMA CGM Group would reroute its container ships out of the war-torn Red Sea route and return to a much longer path around the southern tip of Africa, analysts warned that the lingering unpredictability of changing supply chain patterns could echo through global freight markets.
“Shippers crave predictability in supply chains,” Destine Ozuygur, Senior Market Analyst at Xeneta, said in a release. “Carriers taking the decision to return to the Red Sea then reversing that decision—even if it is done for important safety reasons—still risks undermining confidence in schedule reliability and eroding trust in partnerships.”
Ocean container lines hauling freight between Asia and the North American east coast had previously abandoned the shortcut through the Red Sea and Suez Canal in 2023 after rising violence by militia members targeting western ships, meant to protest Israel’s handling of its war against Hamas militants in Palestine. A shaky ceasefire agreement in 2025 has done little to sooth those fears.
Instead, ships from the major container lines avoided the threat of missile attacks by sailing a longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, trading safer waters for the costs of extra transit time and added fuel costs.
In recent days, CMA CGM had finally returned to the Red Sea route, but today announced it would return again to the longer path. “In light of the complex and uncertain international context, the CMA CGM Group [is] constantly and closely monitoring all potential impacts on its operations. As a result, the CMA CGM Group has decided for time being to reroute vessels deployed on our FAL 1, FAL 3 and MEX services via the Cape of Good Hope,” the company said in a release.
That decision adds about a week to the trip, Xeneta said. According to the firm, full loop transit times on the FAL1 service—which connects China and Singapore to six European ports including two dedicated calls to Southampton—decreased from 105 days to 98 when ships began transiting Suez Canal again. And transit time from Port Qasim in Karachi to New York on CMA CGM’s INDAMEX route fell from 40 days to 36 days after returning to the Suez Canal.
According to Xeneta, shippers can adjust to that extended sailing time if they know it’s coming, but they struggle to cope with changing schedules. “Unpredictability is toxic for supply chains,” Ozuygur said. “Shippers want certainty over when containers arrive at port, even if that means longer transit times around Cape of Good Hope. Ironically, CMA CGM’s decision to play it safe and return services via Cape of Good Hope may lead shippers to perceive them as the riskier choice against their peers.”
