The long-suffering freight market showed early signs of a recovery last month, as orders for Class 8 trucks/tractors jumped 47% month over month (m/m) and 159% year over year (y/y) in February, reaching the highest order total since September 2022 and the third straight month of 20%+ y/y order growth, according to a report from FTR.
By raw numbers, North American (N.A.) preliminary net orders reached 47,200 units for the month, which was well above the 10-year February average of 24,991 units.
Of course, FTR noted that the market still holds plenty of risk factors, including the durability of the freight recovery, still-high financing costs, the potential for tariff or regulatory shifts, and geopolitical risks such as the new conflict in the Middle East.
But the sustained and increasingly freight-driven strength in order numbers reinforces the case that underlying demand is firming more decisively as 2026 progresses. And together with strengthening freight conditions, those figures suggest that the market is not only stabilizing but also transitioning into the early stages of a cyclical recovery, FTR said.
“February’s very solid y/y increase in net orders extended the firmer tone that has been building since late last year. While a portion of demand still reflects previously deferred replacement purchases reentering the market, the consistency and breadth of recent order activity suggest momentum is now being driven more meaningfully by improving freight fundamentals,” Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, said in a release.
“Freight volumes and utilization are trending higher, and FTR’s rate forecasts have strengthened. Also, improved clarity around tariff-adjusted pricing and EPA 2027 NOx regulations is reducing policy-related hesitation and giving fleets greater confidence to advance capital plans. Order patterns increasingly suggest a structured replacement cycle and forward-looking fleet planning rather than short-term catch-up buying, underscoring healthier underlying demand,” Moyer said.
