The Exxon Mobil Baytown Refinery in Baytown, Texas. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
January 30, 2026 2:09 PM, EST
Key Takeaways:
- Exxon Mobil and Chevron shares are posting their biggest monthly gains since October 2022, rising about 15% and 14% in January, respectively.
- Both companies beat fourth-quarter earnings estimates as higher oil production offset weaker crude prices.
- Analysts say stronger balance sheets, disciplined spending and improved fundamentals could help energy stocks remain resilient even if oil prices pull back.
Shares of US oil giants Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. are on track for their largest monthly gains in more than three years, boosted by rising energy prices, geopolitical tensions and improving fundamentals.
Exxon is up 15% in January, and Chevron is on pace for a 14% increase — the best monthly performance for both companies since October 2022, if the gains hold through Jan. 30. The robust moves come alongside an upswing in oil prices and a broader rally that has made energy stocks the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 Index so far this year.
The two oil giants reported fourth-quarter earnings Jan. 30 that beat the average analyst estimate as higher oil production helped offset the blow from lower crude prices late last year. Chevron saw an increase in production from Kazakhstan and Guyana, which helped boost earnings per share. Exxon showed strength in volume growth, but saw weakness in chemicals segment margins.
Despite big moves in some individual names, energy stocks trailed the S&P 500 Index last year, as excitement over the prospects of artificial intelligence boosted tech.
Several factors are giving energy shares a strong start in 2026: Oil prices have surged over the past month following the U.S. ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and escalating tensions with Iran, with Brent crude futures trading near the highest level since July. And while fears of an oil glut weighed on the sector last year, some analysts expect the supply outlook to improve in coming months.
At the same time, better producer earnings and cash flow have bolstered the companies’ balance sheets, helping them outperform the price of crude, according to Morningstar Inc. equity research director Allen Good.
“If you combine that with all the other factors around being under-owned and attractive valuations, I think that that makes sense,” Good said. “The oil price is still going to have a large influence on quarterly earnings, but if investors are looking through that, looking over multiyear time frames, certainly they look attractive.”
Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, said while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR exchange traded fund is on the verge of breaking out from a four-year trading range, investor portfolios don’t appear to be overloaded with energy stocks.
“Attention to the sector still feels relatively light, and we think this relative strength should continue as we head into the spring,” Krinsky wrote in a note to clients.
Of course, the rally in oil could be vulnerable to a swift reversal if the geopolitical picture calms in coming weeks.
While the arrival of a U.S. aircraft-carrier strike group in the Middle East has given President Donald Trump more forceful options to carry out his threats to attack Iran, some observers have questioned whether the moves are an effort to force Tehran to negotiate rather than a prelude to military action.
At the same time, potential benefits from operating in Venezuela may be a long time away for U.S. energy companies despite investor excitement over the prospect earlier this month. Chevron is currently the only major U.S. producer that still operates in Venezuela. Exxon CEO Darren Woods has stressed the company needs legal and security guarantees before investing in the country but on Jan. 30 said he was confident the Trump administration was committed to stabilizing it.
“Venezuela is more hype than anything at this point,” Morningstar’s Good said.
Nonetheless, energy stocks may have more of a buffer against a fall in oil prices this time around thanks to improved fundamentals, said Jason Gabelman, a managing director of energy equity research at TD Cowen.
“The companies are a lot more resilient now than they were in prior cycles,” he said. “Costs are down, capital investments are more in control, so they’re just more durable at lower commodity prices.”
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