Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, speaks at a business conference in Tokyo on July 23. (Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg)
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will travel to Scotland this weekend to meet with President Donald Trump, as the two sides aim to conclude a trade deal ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline when 30% tariffs on the bloc’s exports are otherwise due to kick in.
After months of talks and shuttle diplomacy between Brussels and Washington, the two sides have been zeroing in on an agreement this past week that would see the EU face 15% tariffs on most of its trade. Limited exemptions are expected for aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines, several spirits, and a specific set of manufacturing equipment that the U.S. needs, Bloomberg previously reported.
Steel and aluminum imports would likely benefit from a quota under the arrangements under discussion but above that threshold they would face a higher tariff of 50%.
Earlier on July 25, Trump said there was a 50-50 chance of a deal with the EU.
“I think EU has got a pretty good chance of making a deal,” Trump told reporters July 25 before departing for a golf trip to Scotland.
Following a good call with @POTUS, we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong.
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) July 25, 2025
Trump announced tariffs on almost all U.S. trading partners in April, declaring his intent to bring back domestic manufacturing, to pay for a massive tax-cut extension and to stop the rest of the world from taking advantage of the U.S. He has also sought to remove what he describes as barriers for American companies to do business around the world.
Alongside a universal levy, Trump has hit cars and auto parts with a 25% levy, and steel and aluminum with double that. He also has threatened to target pharmaceuticals and semiconductors with new duties as early as next month, and recently announced a 50% tariff on copper.
The EU has been seeking quotas and a ceiling on future sectoral tariffs that the U.S. has yet to implement but it’s unclear if an initial agreement will shield the bloc from potential future levies at this stage.
The agreement would also cover non-tariff barriers, cooperation on economic security matters and strategic purchases by the EU in sectors such as energy and artificial intelligence.
The terms of any initial deal, which is expected to take the form of a short joint statement, would need to be approved by member states, according to people familiar with the matter. The statement is seen as a steppingstone toward more detailed negotiations.
Because of the ongoing uncertainty, the EU has in parallel put together countermeasures in the event of a no-deal scenario, which would see it quickly hit American exports with up to 30% tariffs on some 100 billion euros ($117 billion) worth of goods — including Boeing Co. aircraft, U.S.-made cars and bourbon whiskey — in the event of no-deal and if Trump carries through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc’s exports after Aug. 1 or in future. The package also includes some export restrictions on scrap metals.
In a no-deal scenario, the bloc is also prepared to move forward with its anti-coercion instrument, a potent trade tool that would eventually allow it to also target other areas such as market access, services and restrictions on public contracts, provided that there is a majority of member states backing its use.
