What does the tracker show?
T&E’s tracker estimates excess profits along the EU road fuel supply chain, using European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin pump price data and Brent crude oil prices, compared against a pre-conflict baseline of January–February 2026.
The analysis separates the supply chain into two segments. Upstream excess revenues — from selling crude oil at elevated prices — flow primarily to oil-producing states, state-owned companies and the upstream operations of international oil companies. These are largely beyond the reach of EU policy. Downstream excess revenues are different. Captured through expanded refining and distribution margins, the majority of some of these profits are realised within the EU and could fall within the scope of a windfall profits tax.
Margins and excess profits may move in either direction from here. If the crisis deepens, margins and profits will increase; if it stabilises or resolves, they will compress. History suggests excess profits are temporary and are a feature of acute market dislocation, not a permanent condition.
For more information see the methodological note.
A solidarity contribution
The EU has acted before. The solidarity contribution — a 33% levy on fossil fuel profits exceeding 20% above the 2018–21 average — raised an estimated €28 billion in 2022–23 before lapsing.
The mechanism exists. The case for reinstating it is strong. Excess profits from geopolitical shocks are temporary by nature; they will evaporate as markets stabilise, refining margins will revert toward their long-run average and the windfall will evaporate. However, EU consumers are bearing another cost of living crisis they did not cause. Starting to act now — even on the basis of preliminary data — sends a clear signal of fairness: that when oil companies profit from conflict, those profits are shared with the public bearing the burden. Policymakers can begin to act in principle and refine the mechanism as more data strengthens the evidence base. Waiting for certainty risks waiting until the moment of injustice has passed. It should be noted that any windfall profit claw back like mechanism would be on the basis of end-of-fiscal-year accounting.
Why are profits for diesel and petrol so different?
European diesel refining margins have outpaced other regions, reflecting a structural shortfall in domestic refining capacity. Europe’s vehicle fleet has a comparatively high share of diesel cars, and the Middle East is typically the lowest-cost source of middle distillates, the key input to diesel. By contrast, petrol margins have been more subdued due to high inventories in the US and Europe, weak seasonal demand, and the Middle East’s limited role in petrol supply. Further, despite a diesel-heavy vehicle fleet, the EU remains more structurally dependent on diesel than petrol imports. With around 20% of Europe’s diesel imported, these excess profits will flow to non-EU firms; this will limit the effectiveness of any EU-based windfall tax.
