The trucking industry’s “driver shortage” debate has persisted for decades. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) claims a chronic shortage since 1987, citing nine studies. Yet, researchers and industry experts argue the labor market functions well when freight demand is strong. A December 2024 study by Professors Jonathan Phares, Jason Miller, and Stephen Burks, published by the Association for Supply Chain Management, shows carriers hire drivers when freight demand rises and reduce staff when it falls.
Carriers respond rationally to demand. Strong freight needs prompt hiring, often with higher wages to attract drivers. Weak demand leads to job cuts. The persistent shortage narrative, driven by ATA-sponsored studies, oversimplifies the role of freight demand.
The COVID-19 pandemic cut trucking jobs by 84,500 (5.6%) from March to April 2020—the largest monthly drop on record. This disruption highlighted how freight demand shaped state-level recovery from May 2020 to December 2021. Seven factors influenced job creation.
How Freight Demand Creates Trucking Jobs
Major points in the study:
- Natural Resource Extraction: Fracking and mining generate significant freight. A single fracking well requires over 1,145 heavy truck trips for materials like sand. The 2020 oil price decline reduced drilling by 41% and mining by 10%, cutting freight in North Dakota and Wyoming, where trucking jobs fell 18% and 15% by 2021. Low demand halted hiring, as specialized trucks couldn’t shift to other freight.
- Warehousing Expansion: E-commerce drove warehousing jobs up 14% in 2020 and 38% in 2021. In California and Arizona, this increased drayage and local freight, boosting trucking payrolls by 8%. High demand spurred carriers to hire more drivers.
- Container Ports: A 17% rise in 2021 retail imports at ports like California and Georgia fueled drayage and transloading jobs. Strong freight volumes encouraged hiring, with minimal competition from port labor.
- Construction, Wholesaling, Couriers: These sectors added freight without competing for drivers. Florida’s 2.6% construction growth by 2021 supported an 11.8% rise in trucking jobs, as material hauls drove demand. Wholesaling and couriers, linked to e-commerce, sustained freight without pulling drivers.
- Manufacturing: Generating 60% of for-hire trucking ton-miles, manufacturing sustains freight demand. Michigan’s auto sector recovery by 2021 increased jobs in states like Ohio, as carriers hired to transport factory goods.
- Retail and Consumer Goods: A 17% surge in 2021 retail imports drove distribution needs. In Florida, retailers’ demand for trucks to deliver goods spurred hiring.
- Energy and Macroeconomic Factors: Refining and petrochemical freight declined in 2020, slowing job growth. Holiday retail peaks and oil price recoveries in 2021 increased freight, prompting carriers to hire.
Why Construction Doesn’t Compete with Trucking
Contrary to popular belief, construction does not significantly compete with trucking for labor. The study shows construction generates freight that supports trucking jobs. In Florida, a 2.6% rise in construction employment from 2019 to 2021 aligned with an 11.8% increase in trucking jobs, as projects like nonresidential building required material hauls (Page 9). Construction’s labor needs—carpenters, electricians—differ from truck drivers’ skills, reducing rivalry. Unlike extraction, where specialized equipment limits flexibility, construction freight uses standard trucks, enabling carriers to hire without losing drivers to construction roles. This complementary demand refutes assumptions of labor competition.
Labor and Competition Dynamics
High freight demand drives carriers to offer competitive wages, attracting drivers. Young firms hire actively during manufacturing or retail surges but reduce staff when freight slows. E-commerce and ports created jobs with little labor competition, as construction and courier roles differ from driving.
Implications for Trucking
Regulators should focus on freight demand, not labor competition. E-commerce, ports, and manufacturing drive job growth by increasing transport needs. Extraction-heavy regions face hiring challenges when demand is low. Managers must plan for freight spikes, like holiday seasons, and oil price shifts. Policymakers should support freight-generating sectors—e-commerce, manufacturing, retail—over shortage-focused policies like younger driver programs.
Key Takeaway
States with robust warehousing, ports, manufacturing, and retail saw rapid job growth post-COVID, while extraction declines limited hiring. Construction supports trucking without labor rivalry. The bottom line: Want more truck drivers? Add more freight, carriers will figure out a way to find them. Freight demand, not driver supply, drives trucking jobs, challenging shortage myths and guiding industry and policy strategies.
