According to Gold, small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. “We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy,” he said.
The forecast comes as tariffs on dozens of countries around the world that had been announced, postponed, and then finally enacted after months of negotiations and deals began to take effect this week, the report said.
“The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect. This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.96 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in June, the latest month for which final data is available. That was up 0.7% from May but down 8.4% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for July, but Global Port Tracker projected that the month surged to 2.3 million TEU as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of this month’s tariffs. That would be the highest number in a year, up 17.3% from June and down just 0.5% year over year.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year. Volume forecast for the remainder of the year would bring 2025 to a total of 24.1 million TEU, down 5.6% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
The “Global Port Tracker” report, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
