According to the barometer published by Upply, Ti and IRU, contractual rates for road transport increased by 2.6 points in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, the increase is 3.1 points. Prices on the spot market have only increased slightly.
This rate development is the result of the increase in domestic demand, which was particularly strong in November 2025. According to Michael Clover, head of commercial development at Ti, “The sharp increase in contractual rates at the end of 2025 was driven by the prospect of a recovery in demand in 2026, which left many shippers looking for lower freight rates. We have seen an increase in contractual rates, while spot prices remained stable even during the peak season, which is another sign that demand in the fourth quarter was quite weak despite an improved outlook for 2026. Given the geopolitical turmoil, early 2026 it will be interesting to see if the 2026 growth forecasts set in the fourth quarter can be maintained.”
The economic forecasts on which Upply, Ti and the IRU are based point to an increase in the consumption of goods thanks to controlled inflation, a stronger euro and cheaper energy. The southern EU countries are likely to continue to perform better than average in 2026, but not as spectacularly as in 2025, while the German economy will finally see a significant recovery. Against this backdrop, carriers surveyed by Ti x Upply x IRU believe that transportation rates will continue to rise.
Finally, it appears that tolls are accounting for an increasing share of the cost: in Austria and Hungary they now outweigh fuel costs.
