Rapidly changing tariffs are disrupting online shopping patterns by prompting consumers to rethink their purchase timing, while retailers respond by tightening access to free delivery amid rising costs, according to a report from the consulting firm AlixPartners.
The firm’s latest “Home Delivery Survey” reveals how shifting global trade policies are driving new tensions between consumers, retailers, and carriers, with the pace of online delivery stalling in most categories for the first time since the survey was started in 2012. That’s because consumer purchases remain driven by the availability of free and next-day delivery options, but consumers are becoming more fickle as shippers push harder on alternatives such as in-store pick-up.
The survey highlighted a broader weakness in economic sentiment, according to the results of AlixPartners’ survey of 1,100 consumers and retail and transportation executives in late May and early June. The responses show that online purchases for home delivery fell across a swathe of sectors, with double-digit percentage point declines from a year ago in ecommerce stalwarts such as electronics, sporting goods and office supplies. Only grocery was an outlier — purchases were in line with those of a year ago.
Most respondents said their buying behavior had been influenced by tariffs. Results showed that:
• 34% delayed purchases due to uncertainty over prices
• 28% pulled purchases ahead to avoid extra import costs
• 66% will seek domestic options if overseas prices increase
“Elevated consumer awareness of tariffs is clearly flowing through into buying decisions,” Chris Considine, a Partner in AlixPartners’ Retail practice, said in a release. “You can see how people are timing their purchases and the conscious effort among a sizeable minority to ‘Buy American’.”
Despite those pressures, one potential bright spot for shippers is the emergence of demographic changes impacting consumer expectations. According to AlixPartners, Gen Z shoppers are more comfortable than other groups to wait a week or more for delivery or give e-tailers extra time to consolidate their shipments. They are also the most likely to buy from value-focused overseas e-tailers such as Shein and Temu that have been affected by the ending of duty-free status on low-value imports.
Shippers may need that extra breathing space as almost three-quarters of executives surveyed said that per-package delivery costs have increased over the past year. Most e-commerce executives said cutting last-mile delivery costs was a priority over investment to boosting service levels.
Accordingly, retailers are tweaking service offerings, gating access to free delivery, tightening return policies, and placing more emphasis on in-store pick-up and returns. Almost half have increased the minimum purchase requirement or require a membership to qualify for free shipping. In addition, half of those surveyed said they had diversified their pool of carriers, and 40% shifted volume over the past year from the two largest players, FedEx and UPS.
