February 27, 2026 11:25 AM, EST
Key Takeaways:
- American Trucking Associations reported a 0.4% rise in January truck tonnage, though overall volumes remain relatively low.
- Analysts said capacity reductions and weather disruptions contributed to tighter market conditions.
- Experts noted uneven sector performance and emphasized that sustained spot rate gains require stronger demand.
Freight tonnage at the start of the year regained some of the ground it lost in 2025, American Trucking Associations reported Feb. 24.
The ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.4% in January to 113 from 112.5 in December. The results also marked a 0.5% increase year over year, though volumes remain relatively low after last year’s losses.
“Tonnage has lifted off the recent bottom in October with modest gains in November and January,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The trucking recovery story is more of a supply-side one with those motor carriers remaining benefiting from reduced overall capacity.”
“Tonnage has lifted off the recent bottom in October with modest gains in November and January,” says ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. (American Trucking Associations)
The Logistics Managers’ Index increased 5.2 points from the previous month to 59.6, largely due to a shift back toward milder restocking. The Cass Freight Index found that shipments decreased 7.1% year over year to 0.886 and were down 4.9% sequentially.
“Capacity was very tight to begin with, though that’s normal after the holidays,” said Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University.
Miller said the dry van space initially saw typical seasonal easing before tightening again in the back half of the month across all three modes because of weather.
Mixed Results in Freight Economy
He noted that certain sectors of the freight economy — including steel production and construction tied to data centers — are performing well, while others, such as single-family housing construction, continue to struggle.
“You’ve got certain parts of it that are firing in all cylinders, whereas other parts are still slow,” Miller said. “This tightness that we’ve seen, certainly for refrigerated and dry van, is a little bit more supply side-driven, whereas the tightness in the flatbed space is a little bit more due to strong demand in certain sectors.”
Miller warned that a run-up of spot rates will not last if it is driven only by a drop in capacity, with the trend eventually needing more freight demand.
“The length of runway that an expansionary pricing cycle has, it’s going to be longer when demand is increasing across the board,” Miller said.
Miller said that by the fourth quarter, if freight volumes do not meaningfully increase while spot rates remain 15% to 20% higher than last year’s levels, those rates will begin to decline.
Weather-Related Disruptions
Arrive Logistics reported in its January update that seasonal and weather-related disruptions drove a surge in spot market activity despite weak demand, though the trend tapered by midmonth.
“I think we were still figuring things out in January,” said David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics. “We were seeing some of that pressure from December easing, and then that big winter storm hit.”
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Spencer said the storms particularly affected spot rates and routing guides, and he added that the increased market sensitivity to disruptions may signal a market nearing balance.
“It’s easy to make the case that, we’re in equilibrium, and we’ve reached this level of sensitivity, and these disruptions are going to create larger shocks to the spot rate environment,” Spencer said.
Spencer noted that carriers will prioritize securing strong rates as they grapple with higher operating costs and plan capital expenditures, though he remains hopeful that recent trends indicate a sustained correction.
“Things were quiet on the supply chain front because we didn’t see any more talk of new tariffs,” said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University. “In fact, there was a bit of a rollback when it came to India, and kind of the spat with Canada that is going on. But that seems to be a negotiating tactic.”
Shifting Expectations Over Tariffs
Dhawan said last year’s tariffs were absorbed across the supply chain based on the assumption they were temporary, but that expectations have shifted as the policies appear poised to take different forms.
“So whatever adjustments they made last year, it’ll be difficult to do them this year,” Dhawan said. “But as I’ve always said, you cannot create inflation from tariffs because most of the stuff we consume in this economy is service-related, or oil-related.”
Dhawan added that clearer tariff expectations have helped reduce market uncertainty and improved business planning, though persistent challenges remain around consumers and labor.
“This is what we know of the K-shaped economy,” Dhawan said. “The older worker, who has the nest egg, in the stock market, 401(k)s and other stuff, is doing very well, is buying stuff, but the younger ones are having issues.”
