United States April rail carload and intermodal volumes saw annual gains, according to the new edition of the “Rail Industry Overview (RIO),” which was recently published by the Washington, D.C.-based Association of American Railroads (AAR).
This free publication is issued monthly by the AAR and provides insights from AAR’s economists, regarding what rail traffic is saying about the current state of the economy, as well as where things may be headed. It also features a Freight Rail Index (FRI), which AAR said “tracks movement across the most economically sensitive rail traffic commodities,” including U.S. carload commodities (excluding coal and grain) and intermodal containers and trailers.
AAR Chief Economist Rand Ghayad told LM that the RIO essentially provides a summary of the key findings from the roughly 45 reports AAR produces for various industry stakeholders, with some of those reports geared towards those in the freight rail industry, as well as policy makers, and academics, with data and information coming from what he called a wide range of sources.
“Rail volume or rail traffic data in general is usually seen as a very important and solid indicator of what’s happening in the economy,” he said. “So, if you want to know how is the economy is going to be moving over the next couple of months, one way is actually to look at what’s happening in the rail industry. The whole idea of RIO is to summarize the findings from everything we’re putting out there and connect the dots with what’s happening in the economy. If the industry is doing well, it means the economy is on the right track. If the industry is not doing well, it means there are some concerns about how the economy is proceeding. It’s meant to be very easy to digest. It’s not meant to be very technical. It’s not meant to be only for, rail folks. It’s meant to be for everybody who’s interested to know about the economy, and mostly about how rail drives the economy.”
The April FRI saw a 1.8% decline from March to April, following a 0.7% gain from February to March, with the report noting that even though there was a sequential decline, coupled with ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, the FRI remains well above levels seen through most of 2023.
April U.S. rail carloads, at 1.13 million, saw a 6.2%, or 65,524 carloads, annual increase, marking the largest annual percentage gain in 16 months, as well as the third-largest increase in almost four years. The weekly April carload average, at 225,569, was slightly below March, while still representing the highest tally going back to October 2024.
The report also noted that 13 of the 20 carload categories it tracks saw annual gains, with coal, which AAR said has frequently recorded the steepest annual declines among the categories it tracks, seeing the biggest increase, up 23.2% annually, benefiting from “unusually low coal volumes” in April and May of 2024.
Through the first four months of 2025, AAR reported that U.S. rail carloads are up 1.8%, or 67,282 carloads.
April intermodal volume, at 1.36 million containers and trailers, rose 7.4%, or 93,244 units, annually, with the weekly intermodal average coming in at 272,300 units. The report stated that this marks the highest April weekly intermodal volume, except for April 2021, which is the all-time high, at 290,555 units per week. Through April, total intermodal volume, at 4.90 million units, increased 8.1%, or 365,456 units, annually, for the second-highest reading, for that period, with the same period in 2021 ahead.
“Recent shifts in U.S. policies on trade and immigration have introduced volatility in financial markets and heightened uncertainty for firms,” the report said. “The ultimate outcomes and impacts of these policies remain unclear. Nevertheless, U.S. rail volumes have thus far remained stable, and many core economic indicators continue to signal underlying resilience. Railroads have long adapted to changing conditions, a legacy of resilience that continues today.”
And it added that, “headline indicators may become noisier in the months ahead, but private-sector demand and freight rail’s adaptability suggest continued strength.”
