Freight shipments and expenditures readings were mixed in March, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems.
Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.
What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers.
The April shipments reading, at 1.058, fell 3.6% annually and was up 0.4% compared to March, following a 3.5% annual March decline. April shipments increased 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis, from March to April, and were down 7.5% on a two-year stacked change basis.
“The trade war is having a variety of effects on freight volumes, with significant decreases likely in May and June in international volumes, but likely a rebound in Q3 due to the recent 90-day U.S./China trade deal,” wrote Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, in the report. “Meanwhile, U.S. consumers are still largely buying pre-tariff goods, though retailers will soon start to run out of these. Volumes may also be temporarily supported in the coming months as consumers scoop up pre-tariff goods before prices go up. After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. So far, the Cass shipments index is trending toward another decline in 2025. In May, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 1% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern.”
April expenditures, at 3.267, were up 3.3% compared to March and rose 1.2% annually. Expenditures increased 2.2% on a month-to-month SA basis and were down 15.7% on a two-year stacked change basis.
Denoyer observed that the annual uptick in expenditures “was more than explained by higher rates,” with April shipments down 3.6%.
And Cass said that the expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
