Trucking cargo prices in the third quarter will be weighed down as the U.S. freight market remains in in stasis, mired in prolonged low demand as businesses wait to see how evolving trade policies unfold, according to analysis from AFS Logistics and TD Cowen.
That data shows a 10th straight quarter of depressed truckload pricing, while less than truckload (LTL) carriers carefully manage profitability from weak volumes and parcel carriers work to shift pricing power back in their favor. Those forecasts come from the third quarter (Q3) 2025 release of the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index.
“Despite plenty of international travel by world leaders, trade policy remains an unsettled picture and businesses are opting for a wait-and-see approach and delaying spending decisions,” Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS, said in a release. “With no catalyst to ignite demand, some carriers are buckling under the pressure of unrelenting low volumes while others are deploying all available mechanisms to capture revenue.”
Numbers will be the worst for the truckload segment, the report found. After peaking at 25.7% above the January 2018 baseline in Q1 2022, truckload rates began a sustained decline, bottoming out at just 4.3% above the baseline in Q2 of the following year. The latest index now projects a 10th straight quarter with rates at or near the bottom, with Q3 2025 projected at 5.6% above the 2018 baseline, a slight quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline.
On the LTL side of the market, carriers face challenges like the “inescapable reality” of soft demand and shifting trade policies. In response, fleets are pivoting to tightly managing revenue, keeping a close eye on lanes, and prioritizing profitability. In Q2 2025, weight per shipment declined by 5.1% year-over-year (YoY) but cost per shipment only fell by 2.9%, indicating the success of carriers’ revenue strategies. The LTL rate per pound index projects Q3 to be the seventh straight quarter with a positive YoY trend, reaching a new high of 65.9% above the January 2018 baseline, driven in part by seasonal factors and carrier pricing actions.
“While there’s some evidence that the steady decline we’ve observed in weight per shipment is in part driven by mode shifting, it’s also indicative of a simpler reality — carriers moving lighter pallets because of soft LTL demand,” says Aaron LaGanke, Vice President, Freight Services, AFS.
And in the area of parcel trucking, pressure to meet Wall Street expectations in the face of headwinds like high labor costs and low demand is driving increasingly aggressive efforts by UPS and FedEx to wrestle back control of pricing from shippers. The heavy discounting that played a major role in parcel pricing for well over a year is finally starting to ease and UPS is taking a particularly aggressive approach, overhauling rating logic and rolling out new surcharges, researchers found.
