The portion of back-to-school shoppers that had already begun purchasing items for the upcoming school year by early July is up to 67% this year, well above last year’s rate of 55% and the highest mark since 2018, according to a survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
That shift is being driven in large part by a concern that prices will rise due to tariffs, a sentiment expressed by more than half (51%) of back-to-school families, researchers said. The survey included 7,581 consumers and was fielded July 1-7.
Despite that early start, there is much shopping still to be done. Most consumers (84%) still have at least half of their purchases left to complete. The top reasons consumers have shopping left to do are because they are waiting for the best deals (47%), do not yet know what items are needed (39%), or are planning to spread out their budgets (24%).
Additionally, four in five shoppers (82%) were planning to buy items for the upcoming school year during July sales events such as Prime Day, Walmart Deals, and Target Circle Week. Sorted by channel, the top shopping destination for college students and their parents remains online (48%), followed by discount stores (36%), department stores (35%) and college bookstores (27%). While these destinations are in line with 2024, discount stores have risen in popularity by five percentage points this year as shoppers look for value.
“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on school essentials,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a release. “As shoppers look for the best deals on clothes, notebooks and other school-related items, retailers are highly focused on affordability and making the shopping experience as seamless as possible.”
The total expected total back-to-college spending is expected to be $88.8 billion, up from $86.6 billion last year. “This increase can largely be attributed to higher income households, while lower income households are pulling back across categories because of economic uncertainty,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “Regardless of income, families want to ensure their students are set up for success. They are cutting back in other areas, using buy now, pay later or buying used or refurbished items to have everything they need for the school year.”
