Freight volumes remained pressured in June, but expenditures stepped higher again on a year-over-year comparison. Uncertainty around trade policy continues to cloud shippers’ decision making, extending an already prolonged freight downturn, according to a Monday report from Cass Information Systems.
Freight shipments captured by the multimodal index fell 2.4% y/y during the month and were off 0.2% from May (with and without a seasonal adjustment). June marked 29 straight months of y/y declines for the dataset. The y/y decline in June was the smallest in seven months.
On a two-year-stacked comparison, volumes were down 8.3%.
June 2025
y/y
2-year
m/m
m/m (SA)Shipments-2.4%-8.3%-0.2%-0.2%Expenditures2.6%-7.0%-1.2%-2.9%TL Linehaul Index1.9%-0.5%0.4%NMTable: Cass Information Systems (SA – seasonally adjusted)
Cass’ outlook calls for a 5% y/y decline in shipments during July, but noted a recent rise in imports could produce better-than-normal seasonal trends in the month.
The report warned that inventory buildup by shippers to get ahead of tariffs will eventually lead to a destocking period, and that “the effects of tariffs may worsen, as higher goods prices reduce affordability and real incomes.”
“With this outlook, the cycle upturn for the transportation industry remains elusive.”
Conversely, Cass’ freight expenditures dataset, which measures total freight spend including fuel, increased 2.6% y/y, a third consecutive y/y increase. The index was off 1.2% from May, 2.9% lower when seasonally adjusted.
Netting the decline in shipments from the increase in expenditures shows actual freight rates were 5.2% higher y/y during the month. A higher percentage of truckload shipments with a lower mix of less-than-truckload moves drove the change to the inferred rate index. While a mix shift toward TL can be a positive indicator for the freight cycle, the report cautioned it is “more likely a head-fake related to pre-tariff shipping.”
SONAR: Outbound Tender Reject Index for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for truck capacity, the Outbound Tender Reject Index shows the number of loads being rejected by carriers. Current tender rejections are outperforming prior-year levels but still not signaling a recovery. To learn more about SONAR, click here.
SONAR: National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL) for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The NTIL is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates remain slightly higher on a y/y comparison.
Cass’ TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, increased 1.9% y/y, up 0.4% from May. June marked the sixth consecutive y/y increase in linehaul rates. The dataset is forecast to increase slightly this year after 10% and 3.4% declines in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Data used in the indexes comes from freight bills paid by Cass (NASDAQ: CASS), a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $36 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.
More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:
