New immigration restrictions could curb driver availability, trigger a massive capacity crunch, and pull the trucking industry out of The Great Freight Recession. The Trump administration’s English Language Proficiency (ELP) mandate, effective June 2025, is already limiting the 3.5 million driver pool, particularly impacting immigrants, who according to the BLS account for at least 20% of the workforce (a figure FreightWaves believes is much larger).
H.R. 1, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” signed into law by President Trump on July 4, 2025, escalates the impact with stringent immigration measures within a broader package of border security, tax cuts, and deregulation. By cutting tens of thousands of drivers, these policies could end trucking’s overcapacity, boosting rates for a sharp market rebound.
ELP Mandate Kicks Off Driver Reductions
The ELP mandate, launched June 25, 2025, began the capacity squeeze. The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance’s rule to place drivers failing English proficiency standards out of service could sideline 40,000 to 60,000 interstate CDL holders. Many are immigrants from Mexico, Eastern Europe, or South Asia, often with smaller fleets or as owner-operators, facing stricter weigh station checks and non-domiciled CDL reviews.
The mandate requires clear communication with inspectors, but enforcement may exclude drivers with functional but non-fluent English. This targets high-turnover roles (turnover nears 90% for long-haul), cutting capacity. Domestic replacements are constrained by the job’s grueling conditions and a tight labor market.
H.R. 1: Immigration Reforms Slash Driver Availability
Building on the ELP mandate, H.R. 1, signed into law on July 4, 2025, anchors Trump’s second-term agenda, blending immigration controls with $146.3 billion in border security, permanent 2017 tax cut extensions, and regulatory streamlining. Its immigration provisions could significantly reduce driver availability:
- Parole Program Termination: H.R. 1 orders the Department of Homeland Security to end parole programs (for example, for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, Ukrainians), a source of drivers. Ending these could contribute to losses within the broader EAD restrictions.
- EAD Restrictions: The bill blocks Employment Authorization Documents (EADs) for parolees, Temporary Protected Status holders, and asylum seekers unless legally mandated, potentially affecting 40,000 to 80,000 drivers, including parolees, who rely on EADs. Non-compliance risks fines up to $4,473 per worker.
- Asylum Barriers: A $50 asylum application fee and port-of-entry filing rules could deter 2,000 to 5,000 potential new drivers annually, limiting future hiring.
- Expedited Removal: Migrants caught within 100 miles of the border face immediate deportation, potentially deterring 8,000 to 15,000 drivers in border states, key for cross-border trade.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates 20% of drivers (700,000) are immigrants, but we believe that number is conservative, largely due to underreporting by small fleets. H.R. 1’s immigration measures could sideline 50,000 to 100,000 drivers (1.4 to 2.9% of the total), primarily through EAD restrictions, with asylum and border measures contributing smaller, partially overlapping impacts.
Enforcement: The Critical Factor
The big question is whether these rules do get enforced. H.R. 1 provides $37 billion in funding to ICE and to reform immigration. This is up from $9.4 billion in 2024. To put this in perspective, if ICE were a military, it would be the 16th most funded military in the world, roughly the size of Canada’s armed forces or 20% above Israel’s IDF. This significant investment signals robust enforcement, with ICE audits targeting fleets employing EAD-dependent drivers, weigh station checks intensifying for non-domiciled CDLs, and warehouse inspections by ICE agents.
The ELP mandate’s enforcement, already underway, could bench thousands of drivers monthly.
Additional Immigration Enforcement Measures
Other administration policies could further limit drivers through immigration restrictions:
- Non-Domiciled CDL Scrutiny: An FMCSA review of non-domiciled CDLs, driven by immigration compliance, may bench 5,000 to 10,000 foreign drivers, mainly from Mexico and Canada.
- Workplace Enforcement: ICE audits, backed by H.R. 1’s enforcement funds, could deter hiring of 8,000 to 12,000 EAD-dependent drivers, as fleets avoid penalties.
- Border Enforcement Focus: Prioritizing border security over highway funding (for example, stalled FAST Act) tightens immigration checks at weigh stations, indirectly cutting 2,000 to 3,000 drivers’ worth of capacity through delays.
Total driver losses could reach 3 to 5% (105,000 to 175,000 drivers), combining ELP (40,000 to 60,000), H.R. 1’s immigration provisions (50,000 to 100,000), and other measures (15,000 to 25,000).
Policy Context and Industry Impacts
H.R. 1, Trump’s signature policy, combines immigration reform with border security, tax cuts, and deregulation to reshape the economy. The ELP mandate enforces language standards for safety. These immigration changes could disrupt operations, particularly in border regions handling 30% of U.S. freight, and raise fleet costs for compliance, including I-9 audits and E-Verify implementation.
From Overcapacity to Great Freight Recession Recovery
Since 2022, trucking has been mired in overcapacity, with excess trucks and soft demand driving spot rates to $2.28 per mile on July 1, 2025, per SONAR data, down from $3.53 per mile on January 9, 2022. Negative margins have crushed small carriers and strained giants like J.B. Hunt ($12 billion revenue). Losing 105,000 to 175,000 drivers would trigger a massive capacity crunch, ending this glut and fueling a recovery from The Great Freight Recession:
- Rate Surge: The massive capacity crunch could make it hard to find capacity, leaving shippers and brokers to pay high truckload rates approaching COVID-era extremes, according to SONAR data.
- Pricing Leverage: The massive capacity crunch could put carriers in the driver’s seat once again, especially for cross-border or high-demand routes.
Risks include compliance costs and potential inflation from higher freight rates.
The Bottom Line
The ELP mandate is likely already cutting driver numbers, and H.R. 1’s immigration reforms, signed into law on July 4, 2025, could remove tens of thousands more, depending on enforcement rigor. By triggering a massive capacity crunch, Trump’s policies could end trucking’s overcapacity, pulling the industry from The Great Freight Recession with soaring rates and swinging the market pendulum towards motor carriers. Shippers and brokers would be wise to lock in higher contract freight rates for guaranteed capacity, avoiding a COVID-like crunch in the fourth-quarter.
