Import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see its first year-over-year decline in over a year and a half this month as the effect of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on the supply chain increases, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
Imports have been elevated since last summer, first as retailers brought in cargo ahead of an October strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports and then in anticipation of an escalation of tariffs after the November elections. That led imports during 2024 to total 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and the highest volume since 2021’s record 25.8 million TEU during the pandemic.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.15 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in March, the latest month for which final data is available. That was up 5.5% from February and up 11.3% year over year. Ports have not yet reported April’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.2 million TEU, up 9.1% year over year.
However, May is forecast at 1.81 million TEU, down 12.9% year over year to end 19 consecutive months of year-over-year growth. June is forecast at 1.71 million TEU, the lowest volume since March 2023 and a 20.2% drop year over year. July is forecast at 1.77 million TEU, down 23.4% year over year; August at 1.82 million TEU, down 21.5%, and September at 1.79 million TEU, down 21.2%.
“We are starting to see the true impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release. “From national security tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to global and reciprocal tariffs on all countries and a multitude of tariffs on specific sectors, the results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes. In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves.”
Gold said the series of tariffs President Trump has imposed since February – including a minimum of 10% on all U.S. trading partners and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of nations announced in April plus a 145% tariff on China – “come at the most important time in the buying process” for retailers. Many retailers are pausing or canceling orders as a result, and small retailers, in particular, “are concerned about what to expect in the coming months and how to order for the future.”
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
