Electric vehicles with mind boggling ranges and charging times. AI tools that defy imagination. The never ending progress of mobile phones. Many high sectors are redefining the boundaries of technology.
But there’s one sector that is quietly delaying its future.
Aviation is one of the pinnacles of engineering. In the past, new planes have pushed the boundaries of what was deemed possible at the time. Recently, however, this pioneering spirit has been left behind. The sector has embraced a logic of incremental improvements that bring efficiency gains, but that fail to compensate for the growth in traffic and its emissions.
Since 1990, emissions from flying in Europe have more than doubled, and there is no sign of them decreasing anytime soon. Meanwhile, the best selling planes today, the Boeing 737 MAX and the Airbus A320neo, are derived from designs that first flew in the 1960s or 1980s.
So what is happening to aviation innovation?
Back in 2007, the EU launched the Clean Sky programme, ambitiously aiming at a “radically innovative air transport system”, which would halve CO2 emissions by 2020 compared to technologies from the year 2000. New engine designs, advanced aerodynamics or ultralight structures were on the table.
In 2014, Clean Sky 2 followed the original Clean Sky programme. It aimed for a 20 to 30% CO2 reduction against a “state of the art” 2014 aircraft by the mid-2030s. The new programme pursued with the development of some Clean Sky technologies that had potential to make a dent in aviation emissions. But the programme also used more than €26 million of taxpayers money for R&D for private jets, and supported other developments with unclear or limited environmental benefits, such as cockpit and cabin systems.
2021 saw the creation of Clean Sky 2’s successor, the Clean Aviation Joint Undertaking. The programme focused on three concepts with high environmental potential: ultra-efficient regional and short-medium range (SMR) aircraft, and hydrogen-powered aircraft.
However, despite the R&D financial support, the aviation industry was being very slow to move from research to market. Large companies leading many Clean Sky and Clean Aviation programmes showed no signs of new aircraft designs in the 2020s. Nonetheless, the hopes were still high for the 2030s, when disruptive concepts like the hydrogen aircraft were planned to enter the market.
Fast forward to 2026, where are we? Was the money well spent? Well…The hydrogen plane has been delayed into the 2040s, citing concerns over the hydrogen ecosystem. Other innovative designs are also being pushed back or “halted”. Meanwhile, many technologies in the Clean Sky 1 and 2 programme, like open fan engines or laminar flow control, were originally planned to enter commercial service in the 2020s or early 2030s, but do not have yet a clear date to hit the market, as there are no new designs in those dates that could use them. Current hopes lay on new aircraft programmes with the potential of significant efficiency gains, but not expected before the late 2030s.
All in all, we are in the midst of an unprecedented stall in aircraft innovation.
How can we improve the situation?
First, Europe needs an ambitious innovation strategy, in an ecosystem that supports companies with disruption in their DNA.
The successor of the Clean Aviation programme should target high risk, high reward technologies that go past the era of incremental improvements and really move the needle on decarbonisation. New aircraft architectures, like blended wing body designs, and new energy systems, including electric, hydrogen and plug-in hybrid propulsions, should be explored by the new programme.
Dedicated support for the European SMEs and start-ups trying to fill the void in aircraft innovation should also be a priority. Their success would be positive for the environment and for European industry. Failure to support them would risk repeating past mistakes, like companies leaving the EU, or losing another tech race to China.
And, to accompany this strategy, Europe needs to create a market for cleaner planes. Otherwise, EU taxpayers may fund R&D for tech that would end up gathering dust in a research lab.
Today, airlines are subsidised to pollute, putting clean tech at a disadvantage. A strong European carbon market (EU ETS) will be a key pillar to reverse this trend, bridging the price gap between polluting and clean solutions, and reinvesting part of the revenues in cleaning up the sector. Other measures, like the modulation of airport charges, environmental criteria for PSOs, or securing the integration of new energy carriers into ReFuelEU, will further pave the way for more efficient planes.
The aviation industry has been extremely slow to innovate in recent decades, but this void of ambition presents an opportunity for Europe. Established and upcoming EU companies lead the aviation industry today. With the right innovation programmes and regulatory framework, Europe is in the captain’s seat to develop the next aircraft generation, maintaining this leadership, and helping make flying more sustainable.
