“The driver shortage isn’t just about volume,” Johnston said. “It’s about qualified supply under pressure.” (LukaTDB/Getty Images)
February 10, 2026 10:25 AM, EST
Key Takeaways:
- The driver pool tightened in Q4 as stricter CDL standards, rising competition and higher hiring costs pushed cost‑per‑hire up 24% compared with the prior year.
- Driver equipment issues led all retention concerns at 32.1%, followed by compensation and operations, highlighting ongoing reliability and maintenance challenges across fleets.
- Analysts expect carriers to keep recruitment efforts active but selective amid economic uncertainty, emphasizing safety-focused hiring and cautioning against letting recruiting channels go dormant.
The pool of available truck drivers showed signs of tightening during the fourth quarter amid a freight market that continues to face headwinds, according to experts.
Several market pressures have been affecting driver availability, including a federal crackdown on standards for commercial driver licenses, according to the Q4 2025 Driver Recruiting and Retention Data Download, produced by The Professional Driver Agency and Conversion Interactive Agency. The report found that the cost-per-hire increased 24% compared with the prior-year quarter as competition grew and capacity tightened. The increase outpaced a year-ago Q4 gain of 14%, which had followed two years of declines for the period.
“The driver shortage isn’t just about volume,” said Conversion President Brian Johnston. “It’s about qualified supply under pressure. As demand stabilizes and freight improves, the advantage goes to fleets that can move faster: speed to contact, speed to qualification and speed to hire.”
AI Helps Job Searchers
The report found job seekers are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence, with search traffic using the technology up 527% from the prior year.
“AI is improving outcomes where recruiting breaks down most: speed, consistency and follow up,” Johnston said. “That’s not just automation. That’s funnel efficiency, turning interest into action faster, while letting recruiters focus on the drivers who are qualified.”
Tim Crawford, CEO of driver recruiting software company Tenstreet, noted that drivers typically don’t voluntarily switch jobs near year’s end because they’re unlikely to get time off for the holidays. “The number of drivers looking to change jobs in November and December falls off a cliff, as you might expect,” he said.
In Q4, however, he noticed an increase in lead applications — essentially the first step in the application process — followed by a broad lack of follow-through. But activity began picking up in late January.
“There’s some pent-up demand there, so what we saw in January was a pretty strong start to the year — which is kind of expected,” he said. “You just have a couple months of backlog, essentially, to work through.”
Crawford added, “Every time a driver changes jobs, that’s a big investment for them. So, the fact that they’re dipping their toes in the water [is] a sign that drivers are voting with their feet to an extent — like, okay, let’s take a look around. The downside — the not-so-good news — is if you look at the drivers doing full applications, the drivers going all the way through the process is off year over year.” Those who do, he noted, tend to be highly motivated.
Among driver concerns noted in the Q4 report, equipment issues remained at the top, with 32.1% of drivers saying issues such as tractor breakdowns, recurring maintenance, equipment assignment problems, trailer reliability and onboard communication device failures are challenges for retention. The other top issues were compensation at 26.3% and operations at 22.7%.
Murky Outlook
“While there is much talk among carriers about a bottom being reached, economic uncertainty and a muted end of 2025 will carry into 2026 from what I see,” said Mark Schedler, senior editor of transport management at J.J. Keller & Associates. “Carriers will want to keep driver recruitment channels warm, but only for replacement drivers plus a little if they have equipment to seat. A used truck price uptick could trigger selling excess equipment versus trying to seat it given high maintenance costs of higher-mile units and lack of desirability among drivers.”
Schedler warned against companies letting their recruiting presence go completely dormant, citing the difficulty of reestablishing a fleet’s name among drivers if there is a sudden improvement in freight volume.
Transport Topics reporters Eugene Mulero and Keiron Greenhalgh examine the critical trends that will define freight transportation in the year ahead. Tune in above or by going to RoadSigns.ttnews.com.
“Carriers that maintain a strong focus on selective recruitment and retaining safe, productive drivers versus growth is really a more prudent strategy until economic strength is more sustained,” Schedler said. “Camera systems and coaching are key to proactively helping drivers avoid unsafe behaviors and crashes so they can stay onboard and productive.”
Schedler suspects that integrating AI into back-office operations, as well as routing, fuel and maintenance, may allow for some headcount and cost reductions. But he also noted focus must stay on those who directly support drivers.
“As in most slow periods, bettering your hand with quality drivers is a consideration,” Schedler said. “Carriers should not retain drivers who are unable or unwilling to show improvement in the safety area and who don’t meet hiring standards. Where possible, replace the drivers with retention risk with those who have a solid safety record.”
