Cargo ship at the Port of Savannah. (Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg)
February 4, 2026 8:43 AM, EST
Global container liners are bracing for lower profits in 2026 as the potential reopening of the Red Sea shipping route weighs on freight rates, exacerbating oversupply issues and aggravating trade pains.
Denmark’s A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd AG, Japan’s Nippon Yusen KK and Chinese liners Orient Overseas International Ltd. and Cosco Shipping Holdings Co. are all expected to report weaker earnings in 2026 after an already difficult 2025 marked by tariff turmoil.
A resumption of traffic through the Red Sea would exacerbate existing “structural overcapacity issues,” analysts at Bank of America said.
Maersk ranks No. 7 on the Transport Topics Top 50 list of the largest global freight companies. Cosco ranks No. 11 and Hapag-Lloyd ranks No. 17.
Supply continues to expand at a record pace, with a projected 36% surge in new vessel capacity from 2023 to 2027, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kenneth Loh. On the flip side, demand for container shipping is expected to contract 1.1% in 2026, assuming container liners make a complete return to the Red Sea, he added.
Global liner rates are on a downward trajectory, falling 4.7% to $2,107 per 40-foot container in the week ended Jan. 29, according to the Drewry World Container Index.
Though not guaranteed, a restart of Red Sea shipping is becoming a more likely prospect now that Maersk has made two successful passages for the first time since Yemen-based Houthis began attacking vessels in 2023.
HSBC analyst Parash Jain previously expected that Red Sea disruptions lasting until at least mid-2026 would mean a 9% to 16% drop in freight rates this year. Now, with Maersk’s return to the Red Sea hinting at a faster-than-expected transition to normalcy, HSBC said there could be a further 10% decline that would push Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd into losses.
A rapid resumption of traffic may at first cause port congestion in Europe, which would support rates, according to Jain. A reopening as Western economies look to restock inventory in the first half of 2026 may also initially help rates, Citi analysts led by Kaseedit Choonnawat said.
Rates would then stabilize lower, with Maersk set to issue “soft” 2026 profit guidance and cut its share buybacks by 50%, according to BofA. The Danish shipper is expected to post its first annual loss since 2017 this year, consensus shows.
Major carriers are treading with caution for now, hesitant to overhaul their networks when a sudden shift in Houthi activity may force a total reversal overnight, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants’ Arya Anshuman and Simon Heaney.
“Cargo owners are also wary of putting valuable goods at risk and are now well used to longer transits, while ports will not be able to cope with a sudden arrival of ships en masse,” they said.
While Maersk has recently started voyages, CMA CGM SA reversed its decision to use the same route after having previously returned three services through the waterway. “That highlights how volatile and unpredictable the situation in the region is,” BI’s Loh said.
CMA CGM ranks No. 6 on the TT50 global freight list.
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Peers in Asia face similar challenges. A complete reopening of the Red Sea route will be “the wild card” to watch in Asian shipping this year — more so than tariffs given the U.S.-China trade truce and ongoing decoupling of the two economies, according to Loh.
For Japanese liners like Nippon Yusen, profitability pressure in the container business will mainly come from oversupply and tariff uncertainty, Jefferies analyst Carlos Furuya wrote in a note. Third-quarter operating income missed estimates, with BI expecting its container shipping business to further deteriorate on lower freight rates and weaker demand.
Privately owned Ocean Network Express — a container shipper jointly owned by Nippon Yusen, Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. — reported a net loss of $88 million in its fiscal third quarter last week, citing the increase in new ships and slow cargo movement on routes from Asia to both North America and Europe. It expects vessels will continue to route via the Cape of Good Hope, leading to a “modest uptick” in fourth-quarter rates.
Ocean Network Express ranks No. 24 on the TT50 global freight list.
Asian shipping carriers may be better positioned than their European peers on margins, as they benefit from stronger regional demand and more resilient spot rates compared with global averages, according to Drewry’s Anshuman and Heaney.
“Intra-Asia trade benefits from greater operational stability, as it is less exposed to geopolitical disruptions such as tariffs and security risks in the Red Sea, which continue to affect major global trade lanes like Transpacific and Asia-Europe,” they said.
