The new edition of Shippers Conditions Index (SCI), which was released this week by freight transportation consultancy FTR saw a decline.
The SCI is a key logistics metric showing freight market health for shippers, combining factors like rates, capacity, and fuel; positive scores mean good conditions (more carrier supply), while negative scores signal tight capacity and tougher times for shippers, with readings near zero indicating neutrality, often fluctuating due to economic shifts and events like fuel price changes or new HOS rules. Recent readings have seen volatility, with shifts towards more challenging conditions as capacity tightens or improves, reflecting an evolving market where shippers need to monitor trends closely for rate changes and potential bottlenecks, according to FTR.
For November, the most recent month for which a reading is available, the SCI reading came in at -2.9, following a near-neutral 0.3 reading in October.
The firm pointed to higher rates, tighter capacity, and a brief period of higher fuel costs as factors contributing to what it called sooner-than-expected weaker market conditions. And it added that in the near-term, falling diesel prices are softening the impact of deteriorating fright market dynamics for shippers.
“We have been forecasting a freight market shift in 2026 that would be mildly unfavorable for shippers, and trends and data over just the last month offer greater confidence in that outlook,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “Van spot rates in trucking were notably stronger than seasonal expectations in December. Even if that strength proves temporary, it indicates tighter overall capacity. Preliminary employment data also points to lower capacity in trucking than current figures indicate. One positive situation for shippers is that diesel prices are near four-year lows, but most other key factors suggest a tougher market in the coming months.”
