Trade between the United States and China remains well below pre-tariff levels, but new data suggest parts of the relationship may be stabilizing after a turbulent year.
The analysis from project44 shows that U.S. exports to China improved in December, marking the first year-over-year increase after months of steady declines. While the rebound was modest, it stands out after much of 2025 was defined by sharp drops tied to new tariffs and shifting trade policy.
Imports from China, however, continue to trail far behind earlier levels. Volumes remain well below last year’s levels, reflecting how tariffs have reshaped sourcing decisions and pushed many companies to pull back from manufacturing in China. Even as exports show early signs of recovery, imports have yet to follow the same path.
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