According to Lithuanian transporter Girteka Logistics, the European transport market remains extremely volatile and the situation is unlikely to change much in 2026. He also points to the decrease in the number of available trucks, which means there is a risk that new peaks in demand cannot be met.
“The current reduction in transport capacity is the result of a correction that started after the pandemic and intensified during the 2023-2024 recession. The number of bankruptcies in the European transport sector has increased by around 180% compared to historical levels and many other carriers have reduced their fleets or postponed their investments, while thousands of small carriers have left the sector completely. The traditional ‘safety margin’ that represented the unused capacity has therefore largely disappeared,” analyzes Tomas Šilinikas, director of rates at Girteka. According to him, this explains why spot market prices are not collapsing despite vulnerable domestic demand in Europe.
Although the economic outlook for Europe for 2026 is slightly better, Šilinikas warns that transport capacity will not recover quickly as carriers remain cautious about investing in new trucks. And even if additional trucks were added to the fleet, the growing driver shortage (currently estimated at 426,000 jobs) would limit the number of vehicles actually available anyway.
