Globally, nearly 60% of companies expect a negative impact from the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff rollout on April 2. That’s according to a survey of 4,500 companies from China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, conducted in March and April by international credit insurer Allianz Trade.
The Allianz Trade Global Survey 2025 also found that the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy is dampening exporters’ confidence, with 42% of respondents saying they expect their firms’ annual income to decline between 2% and 10% over the next 12 months, compared to fewer than 5% who said so before the April 2 trade announcements.
“In sharp contrast to the optimism seen before the April 2 tariff wave, this year’s Global Survey confirms what we’re observing across markets: uncertainty and fragmentation are becoming structural,” Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, said in a statement announcing the survey results earlier this month. “‘Liberation Day’ exposed the vulnerabilities of companies with highly concentrated supply chains and export markets.”
As the uncertainty continues, companies are relying on “coping mechanisms” such as passing on higher costs, diversification, and looking for alternative shipping routes, the survey also found.
Other key findings include:
- ·U.S. firms are decoupling from China and reshoring to Western Europe and Latin America, with 62% saying they plan to reroute supply chains to avoid U.S. tariffs.
- ·Despite a short-term U.S.-China tariff reprieve, decoupling is expected to continue as both sides shift export and supply chain strategies to friendlier markets.
- ·48% of companies said they expect rising non-payment risk, and 24% anticipate longer payment terms, especially in retail, agrifood, and manufacturing.
- ·Europe and Latin America emerge as trade winners, with Chinese and European firms increasingly eyeing these regions as safe harbors for exports and investment.
