The new tax on fossil fuels will not come into effect in 2027, but only in 2028. The European Environment Ministers decided this in the context of the ‘climate package 2040’. This postponement is not to the liking of truck manufacturers and transport companies that have decided to take the path of energy transition.
The ETS2 regulation provides for the inclusion of new sectors, including transport, in the CO2 emissions trading system. In other words, companies that produce and distribute fossil fuels are imposed a tax that depends on the price per ton of CO2 set by a spot market. This tax is then passed on in the prices at the pump. According to estimates, the current price per ton of CO2 would have increased the diesel price by 11 or 12 cents per liter. This will therefore happen in 2028 and not in 2027, as originally planned. This postponement is a half victory for the Central European countries, which had asked for a three-year postponement. Belgium abstained during the vote under pressure from Flanders.
So this is good news for carriers with a fleet consisting mainly of diesel trucks, but bad news for carriers that have purchased or plan to purchase an electric truck: TCO parity compared to a diesel truck will be achieved a year later than planned. It is also bad news for heavy truck manufacturers: they are obliged to reduce the average emissions of their range by 45% by 2030 (compared to the reference year 2019/2020), but they can only achieve this goal by selling many more electric trucks than today. During the Commercial Vehicle Outlook conference organized by Dekra last week, Thomas Fabian (Chief Commercial Vehicles Officer of the car manufacturers association ACEA) estimated that the market share of electric trucks should reach 10% by 2026 and increase by 5% per year until 2030.
What happens if this result is not achieved? “Since the manufacturers have been given reduction targets by the European Commission, they could face a huge fine: 4,250 euros per gram of CO2 excess per vehicle sold.” It is important to know that average CO2 emissions are calculated in grams per tonne-kilometre, that the current average value is 52 g/tkm and that this figure must decrease by 30% between 2025 and 2030. This gives an idea of the amounts at stake.
