The new edition of the Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), which was recently issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR, inched back into positive territory.
According to FTR, a TCI reading above zero represents an adequate trucking environment, with readings above 10 indicating that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for carriers.
And it explained that the TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions include: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. And a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.
For March the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI reading rose to 0.28, following a -0.21 February reading, which marked an improvement over January’s -2.56 reading, and nearly erased all of the growth seen in December, which posted a 2.67 reading. Which was preceded by November’s 3.02, its highest reading going back to April 2022.
“Overall market conditions were unusually stable in March, although freight rates remained weak,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “After a strong first quarter in freight volume—at least partially due to a pull-forward of imports in advance of tariffs—we expect more volatility in the months ahead as shippers respond to U.S. trade policy shifts. The recent short-term agreement between the U.S. and China greatly reduces the potential near-term hit to freight volumes, but we still expect uncertainty and higher costs for consumers to be drags on the economy and freight. One wild card we will watch closely is whether renewed scrutiny concerning truck drivers’ English language skills and non-domicile CDLs will affect the driver supply significantly.”
