The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) is projecting total 2025 U.S. tire shipments to hit 340.2 million units, surpassing the current record of 337.3 million units set last year and topping 2019’s 332.7 million units.
The forecast, released Aug. 7, shows modest overall growth (up 0.9% or 3.0 million units year-over-year) driven by gains in the replacement market that more than offset declines in Original Equipment (OE) shipments. As we reported earlier this year, the USTMA also predicted this record back in March.
OE Shipments Down, Replacement Market Leads Gains
USTMA projects OE shipments for passenger, light truck, and truck tires will fall by 2.0% (-0.8 million units), 1.4% (-0.1 million units), and 8.0% (-0.5 million units), respectively, for a total OE drop of 1.4 million units compared to 2024.
Replacement shipments, however, are projected to increase across the board:
- Passenger: up 1.2% (+2.6 million units)
- Light Truck: up 2.5% (+0.9 million units)
- Truck: up 3.7% (+0.9 million units)
Combined, the replacement segment is set to gain 4.4 million units in 2025.
Long-Term Context
Compared to 2019, OE passenger and truck shipments remain below pre-pandemic levels (down 8.6% and 20.0%, respectively) while OE light truck shipments are up 13.1%. Replacement light truck and truck tires show strong growth over the same period, up 15.7% and 28.2%, respectively.
Why 2025 U.S. Tire Shipment Trends Should Matter to Tire Dealers
While OE shipments reflect new vehicle production, replacement tire demand is driven by vehicles already on the road. USTMA’s forecast suggests more consumers will be returning to shops for tire replacement rather than getting new tires on a factory-fresh vehicle. This can be tied to several factors:
- Slower new vehicle sales compared to pre-pandemic highs.
- Longer vehicle lifespans as owners keep cars and trucks longer.
- Increased miles driven in both personal and commercial segments, which accelerates tire wear.
For tire dealers, this trend points to continued opportunities in replacement sales, upselling maintenance services during tire visits, and stocking the right mix of popular fitments. The growth in replacement light truck and truck tires in particular could signal stronger demand from work fleets, delivery operators, and vocational users, which are customers who tend to purchase in higher volumes and on predictable cycles.
Total U.S. Tire Shipments (millions of units)
Segment2025 Forecast2024% ChgUnit ChgOE Passenger42.343.1-2.0%-0.8OE Light Truck6.66.7-1.4%-0.1OE Truck5.25.7-8.0%-0.5Replacement Passenger224.2221.61.2%2.6Replacement Light Truck37.736.72.5%0.9Replacement Truck24.323.43.7%0.9Total Shipments340.2337.30.9%3.0
USTMA notes that figures are rounded and all shipments are measured in millions of units.
